Polls

Republicans favored in Louisiana governor’s race

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
When we last polled the 2015 Louisiana gubernatorial race, we found the Democratic mayor of New Orleans, Mitch Landrieu, with a lead on both of his potential Republican opponents. In our latest Louisiana poll, we found the opposite. Landrieu, who led Republican Senator David Vitter 45-42 in August, now trails Vitter 50-37. Against Lieutenant Governor Jay Dardenne, Landrieu had held a solid 45-35 lead. Dardenne now beats him by ten points, 46-36. Democrat John Bel Edwards trails Vitter and Dardenne by even larger margins, 51-30 and 48-27 respectively.

The problems for Landrieu seem to echo his sister’s, namely that Republicans have united against him. In August, he garnered 20% of the Republican vote against Vitter, and 23% against Dardenne. Those numbers are down to just 9% and 11%, respectively. Landrieu also finds himself in trouble with Democrats. In August he led Vitter among Democrats by 56%, and Dardenne by 55%. He now leads by only 41% against Vitter and 38% against Dardenne. As for who would win in a Vitter-Dardenne matchup, Vitter beats Dardenne 41-29 statewide, and 63-21 among Republicans.

Louisiana’s satisfaction with their gubernatorial candidates, however, does not extend to their current governor. Jindal remains one of the most unpopular governors in the country, with just 35% of voters approving of his job performance and 53% disapproving. Just 25% of Louisianans want Jindal to run for President, and if he were to run, he would only beat Clinton 47-45 in his home state.

“Louisianans continue to be very unhappy with Bobby Jindal,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But his struggles don’t seem to extend to the Republican Party at large- for now the state is strongly leaning toward electing another GOP Governor to replace him next year.”

As for other presidential matchups, Hillary Clinton has perhaps unsurprisingly lost the narrow leads she held in August against potential Republican 2016 hopefuls. She now trails Jeb Bush 50-43, Chris Christie 44-43, Mike Huckabee 49-44, and Rand Paul 47-43.

PPP surveyed 635 Louisiana voters, including 309 Republican primary voters, from February 6th to 9th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.9% and for the Republican primary component it’s +/-5.6%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Bobby Jindal’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .35%
Disapprove…………. .53%
Not sure …………….. .12%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
David Vitter’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .51%
Disapprove…………. .33%
Not sure …………….. .16%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jay Dardenne?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitch Landrieu?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Bel Edwards?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%

Q6 If the candidates for Governor in 2015 were
Republican David Vitter and Democrat John
Bel Edwards, who would you vote for?
David Vitter …………………………………………….. 51%
John Bel Edwards……………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q7 If the candidates for Governor in 2015 were
Republican Jay Dardenne and Democrat John
Bel Edwards, who would you vote for?
Jay Dardenne …………………………………………. 48%
John Bel Edwards……………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%

Q8 If the candidates for Governor in 2015 were
Republican David Vitter and Democrat Mitch
Landrieu, who would you vote for?
David Vitter …………………………………………….. 50%
Mitch Landrieu ………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q9 If the candidates for Governor in 2015 were
Republican Jay Dardenne and Democrat Mitch
Landrieu, who would you vote for?
Jay Dardenne …………………………………………. 46%
Mitch Landrieu ………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q10 If the candidates for Governor in 2015 were
Republican Jay Dardenne and Democrat David
Vitter, who would you vote for?
Jay Dardenne …………………………………………. 29%
David Vitter …………………………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%

Q11 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Bobby Jindal, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 45%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q12 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 43%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q13 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 43%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q14 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 44%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q15 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 43%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q16 Do you think Bobby Jindal should run for
President in 2016, or not?
Think he should run …………………………………. 25%
Think he should not …………………………………. 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q17 Would you support or oppose raising the
minimum wage to $10 an hour?
Support ………………………………………………….. 57%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q18 Congress is considering whether to continue or
cut off federal unemployment benefits for
workers whose state unemployment benefits
have ended but cannot find a job. Do you think
that Congress should continue or cut off federal
unemployment benefits at this time?
Strongly feel they should continue them……… 45%
Somewhat think they should continue them…. 20%
Strongly feel they should cut them off…………. 21%
Somewhat think they should cut them off ……. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q19 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed in Louisiana, or not?
Think it should be allowed…………………………. 28%
Think it should not be……………………………….. 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q20 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..26%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………28%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q21 Do you think marijuana should be legally
allowed for medical purposes with the approval
of a doctor, or not?
Think it should be allowed…………………………. 60%
Think it should not be……………………………….. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q22 Do you think marijuana should be legally
allowed for recreational use, that stores should
be allowed to sell it, and that its sales should
be taxed and regulated similarly to alcohol, or
not?
Think it should be allowed…………………………. 30%
Think it should not be……………………………….. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q23 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Coca-Cola?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 63%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q24 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pepsi?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q25 Do you have a higher opinion of Coca-Cola or
Pepsi?
Coca-Cola………………………………………………. 59%
Pepsi……………………………………………………… 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%

Q26 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 39%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 53%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%

Q27 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 13%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%

Q28 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q29 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%

Q30 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 66%
African-American …………………………………….. 28%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%

Q31 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%

Q32 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Rand
Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Scott
Walker, who would you most like to see as the
GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush……………. . 9%
Chris Christie ……… . 8%
Ted Cruz ……………. .12%
Mike Huckabee …… .20%
Bobby Jindal ………. .13%
Rand Paul ………….. .10%
Marco Rubio ………. . 7%
Paul Ryan ………….. . 8%
Scott Walker ………. . 2%
Someone else/Not
sure…………………….12%

Q2 Do you think Bobby Jindal should run for
President in 2016, or not?
Think he should run …………………………………. 37%
Think he should not …………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q3 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 22%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 35%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 37%

Q4 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%

Q5 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 31%

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