We’ve been seeing a very clear trend in our polls this week that depending on how it plays out could turn a blue wave into a blue tsunami.

I’ll use the example of one Congressional district to show it. First off this is a district that the rating services have as ‘Likely Republican’ and we found the Democrat up by 2 points, which exemplifies how the punditry hasn’t really caught up to the numbers yet.

But beyond that there’s a fascinating divide along enthusiasm lines and what we saw in this district we’re seeing pretty much everywhere.

Among people ‘very excited’ to vote, the Democrat is up by 11 points. Among people only ‘somewhat’ or ‘not that’ excited to vote the Republican is up by 15 points.

The Republican only being down by 2 in this ‘Likely Republican’ district is predicated on 100% turnout from that R+15 cohort of voters who aren’t that into the election.

Maybe they really all vote but if not that 2 point deficit creeps up to a 4 point deficit, maybe a 6 point deficit.

And across all races at that point the toss ups start all going Democratic, a lot more Republican leaning races move into toss up territory, and you’re talking about majorities with some breathing room in the House and Senate, and massive legislative gains across the country.

Whether depressed Republicans end up sucking it up and voting anyway will be a big factor in just how emphatic the Democratic victory on November 3rd proves to be. I think it’s quite possible they lag in turnout and this ends up being a year where in general it’s the Democrats who end up over performing the polls.