Polls

Republicans slightly ahead for both Gov. and Sen. in Michigan

| Dustin Ingalls

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
Democrats who looked a few months ago to be favorites for governor and Senate in Michigan are now on the ropes, casualties of the general dip in favor for Democrats around the country over the Affordable Care Act snafus.

The somewhat popular Terri Lynn Land edges Gary Peters for Senate, 42-40, and still fairly unpopular Gov. Rick Snyder tops Mark Schauer, 44-40. For Peters, that is a seven-point reversal from when PPP polled the state six months ago, when he led Land in a theoretical matchup, 41-36. For Schauer, it is a drop of eight points on the margin; in early June, he led the incumbent, 42-38. He led by four and five points in the two polls before that as well.

In both races, neither Democrat has become more unpopular, with both still fairly unknown (43% name identification for Peters and 36% for Schauer). But both Land and Snyder have upped their numbers. Only 40% approved, and 52% disapproved, of Snyder’s performance in June; that is now 42-49, a five-point reversal. Land was at a 29-21 favorability mark in the last poll, and 34-23 now.

Part of the problem for Peters and Schauer is also the president’s slide in popularity. What was a 48-47 approval spread in June, already bad in a state he won by nine and a half points, is now 47-51. And his signature legislative accomplishment is seen negatively by a 14-point margin, with 63% saying it has been implemented poorly.

The bright side for Schauer and Peters is they still have plenty of time to improve their name recognition, Snyder is still among the dozen least popular governors in the country, and the political environment should not get much if any worse for Democrats over the next 11 months. Because of their candidates’ relative anonymity, more Democrats remain undecided than Republicans, so the gap can be closed.

“The key races in Michigan are reflective of what we’re seeing throughout the country right now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The political climate has turned sharply against Democrats over the last month and a half.”

PPP surveyed 1,034 Michigan voters from December 5th to 8th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.0%. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Snyder’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Schauer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%

Q4 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Republican Rick Snyder and Democrat Mark
Schauer, who would you vote for?
Rick Snyder ……………………………………………. 44%
Mark Schauer …………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Terri Lynn Land?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Peters?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 57%

Q7 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Republican Terri Lynn Land and Democrat
Gary Peters, who would you vote for?
Terri Lynn Land ……………………………………….. 42%
Gary Peters…………………………………………….. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Schuette?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Totten?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 80%

Q10 If the candidates for Attorney General next year
were Republican Bill Schuette and Democrat
Mark Totten, who would you vote for?
Bill Schuette……………………………………………. 40%
Mark Totten…………………………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%

Q11 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Carl
Levin’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q12 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Debbie Stabenow’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q13 Do you support or oppose the right-to-work
legislation passed in Michigan late last year?
Support ………………………………………………….. 40%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q14 Would you support or oppose a ballot measure
to repeal the right-to-work law?
Support ………………………………………………….. 45%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q15 Do you approve or disapprove of the Affordable
Care Act?
Approve …………………………………………………. 34%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q16 Do you think the implementation of the
Affordable Care Act so far has been very
successful, somewhat successful, somewhat
unsuccessful, very unsuccessful, or are you
not sure?
Very successful……………………………………….. 6%
Somewhat successful ………………………………. 24%
Somewhat unsuccessful …………………………… 18%
Very unsuccessful……………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q17 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%

Q18 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 14%

Q19 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q20 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 30%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 35%

Q21 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 80%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%

Q22 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 31%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%

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