Polls

Mississippi: Cruz has a slim lead, in the primary and general

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
Ted Cruz leads by two points in Mississippi…over Chris Christie and over Hillary Clinton. Read another way, that makes Cruz a nominal favorite in the primary but possibly the weakest potential nominee in the general.

Cruz (19%), Christie (17%), and Jeb Bush (16%) are essentially tied for the lead among Republican partisans. Rand Paul (12%) is not far behind, and is technically part of the statistical four-way tie. Marco Rubio and next-door governor Bobby Jindal have 8% each, with the other three options at 5% or less, and 10% undecided.

Mississippi’s Republicans are particularly right-wing—46% label themselves ‘very conservative,’ versus 34% of their brethren in other states, according to PPP’s latest national poll. It is those voters who give Cruz his strength, with a 2:1 lead (27-13) over Paul, with Bush, Christie, Rubio, and Jindal back at 9-10%. Among moderates, Bush has a 6:1 lead (36-6) over Cruz, with Christie at 22% and Rubio at 13%.

But despite his popularity in GOP circles, if Cruz were to punch through to the general election, he could make Mississippi into a swing state. Mitt Romney won the state by 11.5 points, yet only Bush and Christie approach that mark. Bush leads Clinton by 12 points (52-40), and Christie tops her by nine (49-40), but Cruz and Paul squeak out only two-point edges (47-45 and 46-44, respectively). Part of Clinton’s standing is not only Republican weakness but her own strength relative to President Obama’s, particularly in one dimension. She is already improving on his standing with white voters by at least six points.

Mississippi may be a socially conservative state, with 69% opposing same-sex marriage, but at the same time, two-thirds do not think employers should be able to discriminate based on sexual orientation, including even 52% of Republicans. Despite that, neither Thad Cochran nor Roger Wicker voted for the Employment Non-Discrimination Act.

54% of the state’s voters, including a quarter of Republicans and a majority of independents, also support raising the state’s minimum wage to $10 an hour.

PPP surveyed 502 Mississippi voters, including an oversample of 422 usual Republican primary voters, from November 15th to 17th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 4.4%, and +/-4.8% for the GOP portion. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Phil
Bryant’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Roger Wicker’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%

Q3 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 42%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q4 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 40%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q5 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 45%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q6 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 44%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q7 Would you support or oppose raising the
minimum wage to $10 an hour?
Support ………………………………………………….. 54%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q8 Do you think employers should be allowed to
discriminate against employees based on
sexual orientation, or not?
Think they should…………………………………….. 28%
Do not think they should …………………………… 66%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q9 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed, or not?
It should be allowed …………………………………. 22%
It should not ……………………………………………. 69%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q10 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..21%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………28%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q11 Is your favorite college sports team in the state
Mississippi, Mississippi State, or Southern
Mississippi?
Ole Miss…………………………………………………. 25%
Mississippi State ……………………………………… 37%
Southern Miss…………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%

Q12 (Asked only of Ole Miss fans:) Do you approve
or disapprove of Coach Hugh Freeze’s job
performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 61%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%

Q13 (Asked only of Miss. St. fans:) Do you approve
or disapprove of Coach Dan Mullen’s job
performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%

Q14 (Asked only of Miss. St. fans:) Do you think
Dan Mullen should return as coach for the
2014 season, or do you think he should be
replaced?
Think he should return ……………………………… 56%
Think he should be replaced……………………… 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%

Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Archie Manning?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 66%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%

Q16 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 39%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 10%

Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 23%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 27%

Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%

Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 43%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%

Q20 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 62%
African-American …………………………………….. 32%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%

Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco
Rubio, Paul Ryan, Rick Santorum, and Scott
Walker, who would you most like to see as the
GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 16%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 17%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 19%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 8%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 12%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 8%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 4%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 5%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 1%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 10%

Q2 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 33%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 46%

Q3 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 45%
Man……………………………………………………….. 55%

Q4 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 34%

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