Polls

Landrieus good bets for ’14 Sen. and ’15 gov.

| Dustin Ingalls

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Raleigh, N.C.—
 Six months have passed since PPP last polled Louisiana, but Mary Landrieu’s fortunes have not changed.  Despite being one of the national Republicans’ top targets in their bid to capture control of the Senate, Landrieu remains a favorite for re-election.  The senator’s brother Mitch is also an early, though slight, frontrunner for the 2015 gubernatorial election.

46% approve and 43% disapprove of Sen. Landrieu’s job performance, so-so numbers.  But in three- or four-way ‘jungle primary’ ballot tests with two or three possible Republican opponents, Landrieu places at 47-48%, about twice her nearest competitor.  In runoff election matchups, Landrieu has exactly 50% across the board, leading her most likely opponent Bill Cassidy by ten points (40%), Rob Maness by 13 (37%), and Elbert Guillory by 14 (36%).  That 50-40 versus Cassidy is the same as in the February poll.

Landrieu is doing so well because of hefty crossover support.  Even in the primary, with the presence of a few Republican options, Landrieu has 18-20% of the GOP vote, and in the head-to-heads for the general election, she pulls 22-23%, much more than the 12-16% of the Democratic vote she loses.  Landrieu is losing the independent vote by 11 to 20 points, but they make up only about a fifth of the electorate.

The senator’s brother, currently mayor of New Orleans, has 45% of the vote in two possible matchups for governor.  His closest challenger is his sister’s Senate colleague David Vitter, who trails by only three points.  But Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne could ultimately prove at least as tough if not tougher once he raises his profile.  Dardenne’s 32-19 favorability spread bests Vitter’s 43-40 approvals.  Even Democrats see Dardenne narrowly positively right now, 27-21.  Mayor Landrieu, though, comes out on top in likeability.  44% see him favorably and only 24% unfavorably. 

“Louisiana is obviously a tough state for Democrats,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But the Landrieu family name still carries a lot of weight there and that has the party positioned to be competitive there over the next couple years.”

PPP surveyed 721 Louisiana voters from August 16th to 19th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.6%. This poll was not authorized or paid for by any campaign or political organization. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mary
Landrieu’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .46%
Disapprove…………. .43%
Not sure …………….. .10%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Cassidy?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elbert Guillory?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 61%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rob Maness?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%

Q6 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Bill Cassidy, Republican Elbert
Guillory, Democrat Mary Landrieu, and
Republican Rob Maness, who would you vote
for?
Bill Cassidy …………………………………………….. 20%
Elbert Guillory …………………………………………. 6%
Mary Landrieu…………………………………………. 47%
Rob Maness……………………………………………. 2%
Undecided………………………………………………. 25%

Q7 If the candidates for Senate next year were just
Republican Bill Cassidy, Democrat Mary
Landrieu, and Republican Rob Maness, who
would you vote for?
Bill Cassidy …………………………………………….. 24%
Mary Landrieu…………………………………………. 48%
Rob Maness……………………………………………. 5%
Undecided………………………………………………. 23%

Q8 If the candidates for Senate next year were just
Republican Bill Cassidy and Democrat Mary
Landrieu, who would you vote for?
Bill Cassidy …………………………………………….. 40%
Mary Landrieu…………………………………………. 50%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q9 If the candidates for Senate next year were just
Republican Elbert Guillory and Democrat Mary
Landrieu, who would you vote for?
Elbert Guillory …………………………………………. 36%
Mary Landrieu…………………………………………. 50%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%

Q10 If the candidates for Senate next year were just
Republican Rob Maness and Democrat Mary
Landrieu, who would you vote for?
Rob Maness……………………………………………. 37%
Mary Landrieu…………………………………………. 50%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%

Q11 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
David Vitter’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .43%
Disapprove…………. .40%
Not sure …………….. .17%

Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jay Dardenne?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%

Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitch Landrieu?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%

Q14 If the candidates for Governor in 2015 were
Republican David Vitter and Democrat Mitch
Landrieu, who would you vote for?
David Vitter …………………………………………….. 42%
Mitch Landrieu ………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q15 If the candidates for Governor in 2015 were
Republican Jay Dardenne and Democrat Mitch
Landrieu, who would you vote for?
Jay Dardenne …………………………………………. 35%
Mitch Landrieu ………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q16 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 39%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 55%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%

Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 12%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 31%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 22%

Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%

Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%

Q20 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 66%
African-American …………………………………….. 29%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q21 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 37%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%

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