Polls

Schweitzer, Racicot make Montana Senate race tight

| Tom Jensen


Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C.-
PPP’s most recent poll of Montana
voters finds a tight Senate race brewing in the Treasure State, especially if
former governor Brian Schweitzer throws his hat into the ring. Schweitzer is
the most well-known and favorable person in Montana politics, with a 54%
approval rating compared to 40% who have an unfavorable view of the former
governor. Other popular Montanans include former governor Marc Racicot
(43%/37%), State Auditor Monica Lindeen (38%/22%), State Superintendent Denise
Juneau (39%/25%), and Congressman Steve Daines (41%/33%). The two Montanans
with higher unfavorable ratings were also the least recognized: Corey
Stapleton, with a 14%/24% split, and Champ Edmunds, who had just a 4% favorable
rating compared to 22% unfavorable.

In the
head to head matchups, all of the Republican would find victory over any
Democrats besides Schweitzer, with the exceptions of Stapleton and Edmunds who
would lose to all three Democrats. Should Schweitzer end up being the
Democratic candidate, Montanans would be looking at a pretty tight Senate race
in 2014. In a theoretical matchup between Daines and Schweitzer, the former
governor would win with 48% compared to 45% for Daines. If Racicot and
Schweitzer squared off instead, the Republican would beat Schweitzer by just a
single percent, 47% to 46%. In both of these races, Schweitzer would hold a
nice lead with independent voters, 50% to 39% against Daines and 46% to 41%
against Racicot.

In the
Republican primary, Racicot has a pretty solid lead over his main competitor,
Daines. Racicot currently holds a 47% to 28% lead over Daines, including over
50% of the vote with moderates and slight conservatives who would vote in the
Republican primary.

“The
Montana Senate race looks like a toss up if Brian Schweitzer and either of the
Republicans’ premier potential candidates run,” said Dean Debnam, President of
Public Policy Polling.

PPP surveyed 807 registered voters between June 21-23,
2013, including 340 Republican primary voters. The margin of error was +/- 3.4%
statewide, and +/- 5.3% for the Republican primary. This poll was not
authorized or paid for by any campaign or political organization. PPP’s surveys
are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of
Congressman Steve Daines’ job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Champ Edmunds?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Denise Juneau?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Monica Lindeen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marc Racicot?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Brian Schweitzer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Corey Stapleton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 61%

Q9 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Steve Daines and Democrat
Denise Juneau, who would you vote for?
Steve Daines ………………………………………….. 48%
Denise Juneau………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q10 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Steve Daines and Democrat
Monica Lindeen, who would you vote for?
Steve Daines ………………………………………….. 49%
Monica Lindeen ………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q11 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Steve Daines and Democrat Brian
Schweitzer, who would you vote for?
Steve Daines ………………………………………….. 45%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q12 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Champ Edmunds and Democrat
Denise Juneau, who would you vote for?
Champ Edmunds …………………………………….. 34%
Denise Juneau………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%

Q13 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Champ Edmunds and Democrat
Monica Lindeen, who would you vote for?
Champ Edmunds …………………………………….. 34%
Monica Lindeen ………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%

Q14 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Champ Edmunds and Democrat
Brian Schweitzer, who would you vote for?
Champ Edmunds …………………………………….. 37%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q15 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Marc Racicot and Democrat
Denise Juneau, who would you vote for?
Marc Racicot…………………………………………… 52%
Denise Juneau………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q16 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Marc Racicot and Democrat
Monica Lindeen, who would you vote for?
Marc Racicot…………………………………………… 52%
Monica Lindeen ………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q17 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Marc Racicot and Democrat Brian
Schweitzer, who would you vote for?
Marc Racicot…………………………………………… 47%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q18 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Corey Stapleton and Democrat
Denise Juneau, who would you vote for?
Corey Stapleton ………………………………………. 38%
Denise Juneau………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q19 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Corey Stapleton and Democrat
Monica Lindeen, who would you vote for?
Corey Stapleton ………………………………………. 37%
Monica Lindeen ………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%

Q20 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Corey Stapleton and Democrat
Brian Schweitzer, who would you vote for?
Corey Stapleton ………………………………………. 38%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q21 (Asked of 340 Republican primary voters)
Given the choices of Steve Daines, Champ
Edmunds, Marc Racicot, and Corey Stapleton,
who would you most like to see as the
Republican candidate for Senate?
Steve Daines ………………………………………….. 28%
Champ Edmunds …………………………………….. 5%
Marc Racicot…………………………………………… 47%
Corey Stapleton ………………………………………. 5%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 14%

Q22 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%

Q23 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%

Q24 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 29%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 39%

Q25 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 87%
Other……………………………………………………… 13%

Q26 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%

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