Polls

Colbert Busch expands lead in South Carolina special

| Tom Jensen


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Raleigh, N.C. –

PPP’s newest poll on the special election in South Carolina finds Democrat
Elizabeth Colbert Busch expanding her lead to 9 points over Mark Sanford at
50/41. Green Party candidate Eugene Platt polls at 3%.

Colbert Busch’s lead is on the rise for several reasons. She has a 51/35
advantage with independents. She’s winning over 19% of Republicans, while
losing just 7% of Democrats. And it also seems that after last week’s
revelations about Sanford that a lot of GOP voters are planning to just stay at
home- while the district supported Mitt Romney by 18 points last fall, those
planning to turn out for the special election voted for him by only a 5 point
spread.

Sanford continues to be unpopular in the district with 38% of voters rating
him favorably to 56% with a negative opinion. 51% say the revelations about his
trespassing last week give them doubts about his fitness for public office.
Interestingly the events of the last week haven’t hurt Sanford too much with
Republicans though- 65% say the trespassing charges don’t give them any doubts
about him, and his favorability with GOP voters has actually improved from
55/39 a month ago to now 61/32.

Although Sanford’s unpopularity is clearly the main reason Democrats have a
chance to win in this district, it’s interesting to note that there is some
backlash against Republicans over last week’s vote on background checks. 86% of
voters in the district say they support them to only 12% opposed, and 45% of
voters say the GOP’s opposition to them makes it less likely they’ll support
the party in the next election compared to only 21% who consider it a positive.
That anger over the gun vote comes despite Barack Obama having only a 41%
approval rating in the district with 51% of voters disapproving of him.

“Elizabeth Colbert Busch is now looking like a clear favorite in the special
election,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The only question
is whether an extremely unpopular Sanford can find some way to make voters like
her even less than him in the next two weeks.”

PPP surveyed 796
likely voters from April 19th to 21st. The margin of error for the survey
is +/-3.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political
organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 The candidates in the special election for
Congress are Democrat Elizabeth Colbert
Busch, Republican Mark Sanford, and Green
Party candidate Eugene Platt. If the election
was today, who would you vote for?
Elizabeth Colbert Busch……………………………. 50%
Mark Sanford ………………………………………….. 41%
Eugene Platt …………………………………………… 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elizabeth Colbert Busch?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Sanford?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Stephen Colbert?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jenny Sanford?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%

Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Nikki Haley’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .41%
Disapprove…………. .43%
Not sure …………….. .16%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Vincent Sheheen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%

Q9 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Nikki Haley and Democrat Vincent
Sheheen, who would you vote for?
Nikki Haley……………………………………………… 44%
Vincent Sheheen……………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Tim
Scott’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .48%
Disapprove…………. .27%
Not sure …………….. .25%

Q11 Do you favor or oppose requiring background
checks on individuals who purchase guns at
gun shows?
Strongly favor……… .72%
Somewhat favor….. .14%
Somewhat oppose . . 7%
Strongly oppose….. . 5%
Not sure …………….. . 2%

Q12 Does the Republican Party’s opposition to
background checks at gun shows make you
more or less likely to support its candidates in
the next election?
More likely………….. .21%
Less likely ………….. .45%
Doesn’t make a
difference …………….28%
Not sure …………….. . 7%

Q13 Do charges of trespassing against Mark
Sanford give you very serious doubts,
somewhat serious doubts, or no doubts at all
about his fitness for public office?
Very serious doubts 35%
Somewhat serious
doubts…………………16%
No doubts at all…… .44%
Not sure …………….. . 5%

Q14 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 50%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 4%

Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%

Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 56%
Man……………………………………………………….. 44%

Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 33%
Republican……………………………………………… 42%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%

Q18 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 77%
African-American …………………………………….. 18%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 21%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 35%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%

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