McAuliffe opens 2013 with a lead over Cuccinelli

Raleigh, N.C. – Virginia is unique in its one-term limit on its governors, and if current numbers hold, the GOP may see its four-year moment in control of the entire state end this fall.  Likely Democratic nominee Terry McAuliffe leads likely Republican opponent Ken Cuccinelli by five points (46-41) in PPP’s first 2013 poll of the state.

Cuccinelli, currently the state’s Attorney General, has much higher name identification than McAuliffe, who failed to get his party’s nomination four years ago, despite his establishment support and fundraising advantage.  Only about half of voters say they are familiar with McAuliffe, but almost three-quarters are with their A.G.  If name recognition is neutralized at this point, McAuliffe’s lead jumps to 13 points (52-39), suggesting he could do even better as he begins to officially campaign for office.

The race is not all about name I.D., however.  Cuccinelli’s raw favorability rating (29%) is slightly better than McAuliffe’s (25%), but his negatives are far higher (45% versus 26%).  Part of Cuccinelli’s problem is he is divisive within his own party—23% of Republicans see him unfavorably.  With GOP voters who dislike Cuccinelli personally, McAuliffe actually leads by an even larger margin than he does electorate-wide (47-40).  Thus, each candidate gets 81% of his own party’s support, but McAuliffe pulls more (11%) of the GOP than Cuccinelli does of Democrats (6%). 

There has been some talk, stoked by the Lieutenant Governor himself, that Bill Bolling may run as an independent candidate.  At this point, he would get a solid 15% of the vote and, as one might expect, help McAuliffe to a wider 40-32 advantage over Cuccinelli.  Bolling draws equally from the two among independents, taking 24% of their vote.  He makes virtually no dent in McAuliffe’s intraparty support, but knocks Cuccinelli down 12 points among the GOP, with 19% of Republican votes. 

“Ken Cuccinelli’s unpopularity is really the story of the race at this point,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Even to a decent number of Republicans he is an unacceptable candidate, and that could give Bill Bolling an opening to run a viable independent campaign.”

PPP surveyed 602 Virginia voters from January 4^th to 6^th. The margin of error is +/-4.0%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ken Cuccinelli?
Favorable........................................................ 29%
Unfavorable .................................................... 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 27%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Terry McAuliffe?
Favorable........................................................ 25%
Unfavorable .................................................... 26%
Not sure .......................................................... 50%

Q3 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Ken Cuccinelli and Democrat Terry
McAuliffe, who would you vote for?
Ken Cuccinelli ................................................ 41%
Terry McAuliffe................................................ 46%
Undecided....................................................... 13%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Bolling?
Favorable........................................................ 29%
Unfavorable .................................................... 16%
Not sure .......................................................... 56%

Q5 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Ken Cuccinelli, Democrat Terry
McAuliffe, and Bill Bolling running as an
independent, who would you vote for?
Ken Cuccinelli ................................................. 32%
Terry McAuliffe................................................ 40%
Bill Bolling ...................................................... 15%
Undecided....................................................... 13%

Q6 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
the state legislature today, would you vote for
the Democratic or Republican candidate from
your district?
Democrat ........................................................ 45%
Republican...................................................... 41%
Not sure .......................................................... 15%

Q7 Who did you vote for President in 2012?
Barack Obama................................................ 49%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 45%
Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 5%

Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 10%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 17%
Moderate......................................................... 32%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 24%
Very conservative ........................................... 17%

Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 55%
Man................................................................. 45%

Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 35%
Republican...................................................... 32%
Independent/Other.......................................... 32%

Q11 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White .............................................................. 73%
African-American ............................................ 18%
Other............................................................... 9%

Q12 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45........................................................... 36%
46 to 65........................................................... 43%
Older than 65.................................................. 21%