Clinton could win Texas

PPP's newest Texas poll finds that, at least for now, Hillary Clinton could win the state in 2016. This follows on the heels of a survey last month where we found she would have a decent chance of winning Kentucky if she makes another White House bid.

50% of Texas voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton to 43% with a negative one. She's universally well liked by Democrats (91/5) and a majority of independents view her positively as well (52/41). She holds narrow leads in hypothetical match ups with Marco Rubio (46/45) and Chris Christie (45/43) and a wider one in a contest against Rick Perry (50/42).

Speaking of Perry, Republicans in Texas have no interest in seeing him run for President again in 2016. Only 19% think he should make a bid to 70% who think he should not, and he ties for 7th in a 9 candidate field that we tested. Leading the way is Marco Rubio at 21%, followed by Mike Huckabee at 14%, Rand Paul at 13%, Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan at 11%, Chris Christie at 9%, Perry and Bobby Jindal at 4%, and Susana Martinez at 2%.

Other notes from Texas:

-Texas mirrors many southern states in that it remains opposed to gay marriage, but does support same sex couples having legal rights in the form of civil unions. Only 35% of voters in the state support gay marriage to 55% opposed. But 61% support either gay marriage or civil unions, with just 36% against any sort of legal recognition for same sex couples.

-Our first look at newly elected Senator Ted Cruz's approval rating finds 36% of voters giving him good marks to 30% who disapprove. Not surprisingly 34% have no opinion about Cruz one way or the other after only one month of service. Cruz already has the highest net approval rating of major politicians in the state, besting Perry, John Cornyn, and Barack Obama.

-Support for secession in the state has increased since President Obama's reelection. 20% of voters say they'd like to leave the country to 67% who support staying in the union. That's up from 14% who wanted to secede when we polled on the issue in September of 2011. 35% of Republicans support exiting.

-Republicans in some states have been embracing a scheme to allocate electoral voters by Congressional District instead of giving them to the statewide winner, but in red Texas they don't think that's such a good idea. Only 23% of GOP voters (and 28% of Democrats) support making the change there.

-Jerry Jones is an incredibly unpopular figure in Texas. Only 13% of voters in the state see him favorably to 50% with a negative opinion. Among Cowboys fans 52% think the franchise would be better off with a different owner to just 14% who think they'd worse off and 29% who think they'd be about the same.

-Jones isn't the most unpopular athletic figure in Texas though. That 'honor' would go to Lance Armstrong who in spite of his native son status in the state is seen positively by only 16% of voters compared to 59% with a negative opinion, numbers that aren't a whole lot better than what we found for him on recent Minnesota and Maine polls.

Full results here

Comments

[PatMcEwen]

I wish you would have polled the favorability of Christie and Rubio like you did Clinton. Without some kind of measure of their name recognition in Texas, it's impossible to know whether Clinton wins because there are voters who would prefer her over an unknown, but would prefer Rubio or Christie once they learn about them.

[Chris S.]

So, according to your polling from the last few weeks, Clinton would beat Christie by 2% nationally, but she'd also beat him by 2% in Texas, and by 6% in Minnesota? Either the Christie vs. Clinton electoral map looks completely crazy, or one or more of those polls must be an outlier. Any insight into the demographics that would explain a mere 4 point gap between the presidential vote in Minnesota and Texas?

[don baker]

I know of nobody who would support a corrupt marxist liar like Clinton.

[Sid Grier]

Some people only know people who think like they do.
That's why Karl Rove and Fox News were so surprised when Obama won again.
Right now Fox & Friends are very puzzled by Obama's 60% popularity rating.

[Dee W.]

I don't know what democratic office you polled but here in Texas I know of no one who would vote for Hillary. She is not well thought of here in our glorious state.

I took my own poll during the last election of polls and not one of the people that I know in 14 states or in my home state of Texas and not one person had ever been solicited for a poll. Seems to me that polls must be bias for the company or party that hired them and are a waste of time and $$. Polls must be a filler for empty news spots in the paper & air time.

[retired military from texas]

No voters in Texas were actually used in this poll.

[Vicki]

Clinton is not a corrupt marxist liar, but most of the republicans in our government and out of it sure are. So look in the mirror buddy.

[Axzl]

Someone should take a poll on how many NON-Texans want Texas to secede. I know I'm for it, although an air-drop to a still-loyal Austin would have to be included.

[Ted Warren]

I heard that a recent poll in my state (not Texas) found that 99% are in favor of Texas seceding from the US. We are in favor of throwing out Texas and making Puerto Rico the (new) 50th state.

[Luke Nicholson]

Axzl, actually, so is Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio.

The idiots here are only easier to hear because they yell louder.

As far as the poll goes, I'm a little surprised, but no entirely. I heard predictions that Texas would be a swing state d/t the growing/aging Hispanic population anywhere between 2016 & 2020.

Of course, this poll comes before any sort of widespread concerted effort to both antagonize Clinton or support any of the Republican candidates by the right-wing media. But Nate Silver certainly thinks Clinton could win handily, and he's earned his stripes.

[James]

What fantasy is this? Are we hearing voices like Joan of Arc?

[Jason]

What far left skewed media poll published this? Dream on.