Polls

Clinton could win Texas in 2016

| Tom Jensen


Header-poll-results
Raleigh,
N.C. –
Predictions
about Texas eventually becoming a presidential battleground state could get
fast-tracked if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee in 2016, according to
PPP’s latest poll.

The
results are within the margin of error, but Clinton leads Marco Rubio 46% to
45%, Chris Christie 45% to 43% and Rick Perry 50% to 42%. She has a +7
favorability rating (50/43) with Texas voters and strong support among moderate
voters—72% view her favorably, and she crushes her potential GOP opponents
among this voting group.

“If
Clinton is the 2016 nominee, she could conceivably expand the electoral map for
Democrats in deep-red Texas,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy
Polling.

Rubio
leads the pack in a potential 2016 GOP presidential primary with 21% support,
followed by 14% for Mike Huckabee, 13% for Rand Paul, 11% for Jeb Bush and Paul
Ryan, 9% for Christie, 4% for Bobby Jindal and Perry and 2% for Susana
Martinez. 10% support someone else or are undecided. 70% don’t want Perry to
run again for president.

Ted Cruz
has a +6 job approval rating (36/30), with 34% not sure. 41% of voters have a
favorable view of George P. Bush to 33% unfavorable and 26% unsure.

51% of
voters support continuing to allow Texas’ popular vote winner to receive all of
its electoral votes to 28% who support the congressional district proposal. 20%
support seceding from the United States because of President Obama’s reelection
to 67% opposed and 12% not sure. Same-sex marriage is opposed 55% to 35%, but
61% support some form of legal recognition—33% support marriage equality and
28% support civil unions.

42% of
Texas voters consider themselves to be Dallas Cowboys fans while 50% do not.
52% of Cowboys fans think the team would be better off without team owner Jerry
Jones, while 29% think it would be about the same and 14% think it would be
worse off.

PPP surveyed 500 Texas voters as well as 400 usual Republican
primary voters from January 24th to 27th. The margin of
error for the overall sample is +/-4.4% overall and +/-4.9% for the GOP portion. This
poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.
PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Ted
Cruz’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .36%
Disapprove…………. .30%
Not sure …………….. .34%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George P. Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%

Q3 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed in Texas, or not?
It should …………………………………………………. 35%
It should not ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q4 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..33%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………28%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q6 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 45%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q7 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 50%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q8 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 46%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q9 Do you think that all of Texas’ electoral votes
should go to the presidential candidate who
wins in the state, or do you think one electoral
vote should be given to the winner of each
congressional district?
All of Texas’ electoral votes should go to the
presidential candidate who wins the state…….51%
One vote should be given to the winner of
each congressional district…………………………28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Lance Armstrong?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%

Q11 Would you support or oppose Texas seceding
from the union because of Barack Obama’s reelection?
Support ………………………………………………….. 20%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 67%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jerry Jones?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%

Q13 Do you consider yourself to be a Dallas
Cowboys fan, or not?
Consider yourself a Cowboys fan ………………. 42%
Do not ……………………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q14 (Asked only of Cowboys fans:) Do you think
the Cowboys would be better off, worse off, or
about the same with a different owner than
Jerry Jones?
Better off ………………………………………………… 52%
Worse off ……………………………………………….. 14%
About the same……………………………………….. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 25%

Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 56%
Man……………………………………………………….. 44%

Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 32%
Republican……………………………………………… 43%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%

Q18 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 19%
White …………………………………………………….. 62%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%

Q19 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 48%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Susana
Martinez, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio,
and Paul Ryan, who would you most like to see
as the GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 11%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 9%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 14%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 4%
Susana Martinez……………………………………… 2%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 13%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 4%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 21%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 11%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 10%

Q2 Do you think Rick Perry should run for
President in 2016, or not?
He should……………………………………………….. 19%
He should not………………………………………….. 70%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q3 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 34%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 42%

Q4 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q5 If you are 18 to 45years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 33%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%

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