Polls

Haley vulnerable in South Carolina

| Tom Jensen


Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
Republican Nikki
Haley is losing to former Gubernatorial challenger Vincent Sheheen in PPP’s
latest poll of South Carolina. Sheheen tops Haley 46-44 with 10%
undecided.  Sheheen leads despite being
somewhat unknown – 55% of voters have neither a favorable or unfavorable
opinion of him (24% fav/21% unfav).

Haley has middling job approval ratings for an incumbent – just 42% of
voters say they approve of her job performance compared to 49% who disapprove.
Democrats (15/78) and Republicans (70/22) break out mostly along Party lines
but the Governor suffers from the most from lack of approval among independent
voters (28/57). Looking at potential matchups if Haley were to lose a primary
or not to run, Sheheen leads Republican Treasurer Curtis Loftis 46-37 and leads
Lieutenant Governor Glenn McConnell 44-41.

“Nikki Haley won by an underwhelming margin in 2010 given the strong year
for Republicans nationally,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy
Polling. “Since then she’s proven to be an unpopular Governor, and the
political climate has gotten better for Democrats. Put those things together
and she’s looking very vulnerable for 2014.”

Lindsey Graham appears stronger than one might have thought among Republican
primary voters, with a 66/26 approval rating among them and a 47/39 rating
among all voters. Graham easily turns away several potential Senate primary
opponents (Tim Scott comes closest at 54-32). 51% of Republican primary voters
say they’d want Graham to be the Senate nominee in 2014 while 40% say they’d
want someone more conservative.

With a recent study showing South Carolina ranking last among the 50 states
with just 10% of elected offices held by women, 76% say they would support
efforts to encourage more female candidates to run for elective office.

PPP surveyed 520 South Carolina voters  and an oversample of 506 Republican primary
voters from December 7th to 9th. The margin of error for the overall
survey is +/-4.3% and +/-4.4% for the Republican primary survey.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by
any campaign or political organization.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Nikki Haley’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .42%
Disapprove…………. .49%
Not sure …………….. .10%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Curtis Loftis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 67%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Glenn McConnell?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 57%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Vincent Sheheen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 55%

Q6 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Republican Nikki Haley and Democrat Vincent
Sheheen, who would you vote for?
Nikki Haley……………………………………………… 44%
Vincent Sheheen……………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q7 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Republican Curtis Loftis and Democrat Vincent
Sheheen, who would you vote for?
Curtis Loftis…………………………………………….. 37%
Vincent Sheheen……………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q8 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Republican Glenn McConnell and Democrat
Vincent Sheheen, who would you vote for?
Glenn McConnell …………………………………….. 41%
Vincent Sheheen……………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Lindsey Graham’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .47%
Disapprove…………. .39%
Not sure …………….. .14%

Q10 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed, or not?
It should be allowed 27%
It should not ……….. .62%
Not sure …………….. .10%

Q11 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should
be allowed to legally
marry…………………..25%
Gay couples should
be allowed to form
civil unions but not
marry…………………..29%
There should be no
legal recognition of
a gay couple’s
relationship ………….43%
Not sure …………….. . 4%

Q12 Currently, South Carolina is ranked last of all
50 states for its number of women in elected
office, at just 10%. Would you support or
oppose efforts to actively encourage more
female candidates to run for elected office?
Support ……………… .76%
Oppose ……………… . 8%
Not sure …………….. .17%

Q13 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 52%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%

Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 13%
Moderate………………………………………………… 24%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 28%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 26%

Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 31%
Republican……………………………………………… 42%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 26%

Q17 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 72%
African-American …………………………………….. 20%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%

Q18 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 38%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Davis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Trey Gowdy?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mick Mulvaney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 63%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Sanford?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Scott?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%

Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Nikki Haley’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .65%
Disapprove…………. .26%
Not sure …………….. . 9%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Curtis Loftis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 67%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Glenn McConnell?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Vincent Sheheen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%

Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Lindsey Graham’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .66%
Disapprove…………. .26%
Not sure …………….. . 8%

Q11 If the Republican candidates for Governor in
2014 were Nikki Haley and Curtis Loftis, who
would you vote for?
Nikki Haley……………………………………………… 66%
Curtis Loftis…………………………………………….. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q12 If the Republican candidates for Governor in
2014 were Nikki Haley and Glenn McConnell,
who would you vote for?
Nikki Haley……………………………………………… 58%
Glenn McConnell …………………………………….. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q13 Generally speaking, would you like the
Republican candidate for Governor in 2014 to
be Nikki Haley or someone else?
Nikki Haley……………………………………………… 53%
Someone else…………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q14 If the Republican candidates for Senate in
2014 were Lindsey Graham and Tom Davis,
who would you vote for?
Lindsey Graham ……………………………………… 67%
Tom Davis………………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q15 If the Republican candidates for Senate in
2014 were Lindsey Graham and Trey Gowdy,
who would you vote for?
Lindsey Graham ……………………………………… 57%
Trey Gowdy…………………………………………….. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q16 If the Republican candidates for Senate in
2014 were Lindsey Graham and Mick
Mulvaney, who would you vote for?
Lindsey Graham ……………………………………… 64%
Mick Mulvaney ………………………………………… 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q17 If the Republican candidates for Senate in
2014 were Lindsey Graham and Mark Sanford,
who would you vote for?
Lindsey Graham ……………………………………… 64%
Mark Sanford ………………………………………….. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q18 If the Republican candidates for Senate in
2014 were Lindsey Graham and Tim Scott,
who would you vote for?
Lindsey Graham ……………………………………… 54%
Tim Scott………………………………………………… 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q19 Generally speaking, would you like the
Republican nominee for Senate in 2014 to be
Lindsey Graham or somebody more
conservative than him?
Lindsey Graham ……………………………………… 51%
Someone more conservative …………………….. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q20 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 37%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 43%

Q21 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%

Q22 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 33%

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