Polls

Obama leads by 4 points in Virginia, 5 points in Ohio

| Tom Jensen


Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –

PPP’s final polls in Ohio and Virginia find Barack Obama ahead in both states,
52/47 in Ohio and 51/47 in Virginia. PPP has conducted four polls in each of
these states over the last three weeks and has found an average lead of 3.75
points for Obama in Ohio and an average advantage of 3.5 points for him in
Virginia.

In Ohio Obama’s already built up a large lead during the early voting period.
He’s up 60/39 with those who already cast their ballots. Romney’s ahead 51/48
with people who plan to vote on election day but he’s going to need a much
wider margin than that to take the state.

Obama’s winning thanks to leads of 54/44 with women, 86/11 with African
Americans, and 61/33 with voters under 30. And although he trails Romney with
independents (49/47) and white voters (51/47), he’s holding Romney to margins
well below what he would need to win those groups.

It’s a similar story in Virginia. Obama’s up 56/43 with women and 92/8 with
African Americans and he’s holding Romney to a 58/40 advantage with whites,
which is below what we’ve generally been finding for him nationally recently.

Democrats are also well positioned to win the US Senate races in each of
these states. Tim Kaine leads George Allen 52/46 in Virginia’s open seat race
and Sherrod Brown’s up 54/44 for reelection against Josh Mandel. It’s a similar
story in both states. Voters like the Democratic candidates- Brown has a 48/43
approval rating and Kaine has a 50/40 favorability rating. And they don’t much
care for the Republican contenders- Mandel’s favorability is 36/50 and Allen’s
is 42/48.

“Barack Obama’s the favorite in Ohio and Virginia,” said Dean Debnam,
President of Public Policy Polling. “We have found him leading those states in
poll after poll during the closing stretch.”

PPP surveyed 1,000
likely voters in Ohio and 975 in Virginia on November 3rd and 4th.
The margin of error for both states is +/-3.1%  This poll was not paid for
or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are
conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Ohio Toplines

Q1 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 2%

Q2 The candidates for US Senate are Democrat
Sherrod Brown and Republican Josh Mandel. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Sherrod Brown………………………………………… 54%
Josh Mandel …………………………………………… 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%

Q3 Have you already voted, either at an early
voting site or with an absentee ballot?
Yes………………………………………………………… 34%
No …………………………………………………………. 66%

Q4 Issue 2 would remove the authority of elected
representatives and grant new authority to
appointed officials to establish congressional
and state legislative district lines. It would
create a state-funded commission of appointed
individuals from a limited pool of applicants to
replace the aforementioned. The commission
would consist of 12 members as follows: four
affiliated with the largest political party, four
affiliated with the second largest political party,
and four not affiliated with either of the two
largest political parties. Affirmative votes of
seven of 12 members are needed to select a
plan. If the election was today, would you vote
for or against Issue 2?
For ………………………………………………………… 39%
Against…………………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Sherrod Brown’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .48%
Disapprove…………. .43%
Not sure …………….. . 9%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Josh Mandel?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Kasich’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .45%
Disapprove…………. .40%
Not sure …………….. .15%

Q10 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
Governor today, would you vote for Republican
John Kasich or his Democratic opponent?
John Kasich ……….. .44%
Democratic
opponent……………..43%
Not sure …………….. .13%

Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%

Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%

Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 43%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 22%

Q14 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 83%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

Virginia Toplines

Q1 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 1%

Q2 The candidates for Senate are Democrat Tim
Kaine and Republican George Allen. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Tim Kaine……………………………………………….. 52%
George Allen…………………………………………… 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 2%

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Kaine?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George Allen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark
Warner’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%

Q8 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
Senate today, would you vote for Democrat
Mark Warner or his Republican opponent?
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 54%
Republican opponent ……………………………….. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%

Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%

Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 38%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 29%

Q12 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 72%
African-American …………………………………….. 19%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%

Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45 years old, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If
you are older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 13%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

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