Polls

Obama leads by 3 in Wisconsin, 6 in Pennsylvania

| Tom Jensen


Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –

PPP’s final polls of the 2012 election cycle in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin find
Barack Obama favored to win both states, although by margins a good deal closer
than he won them by in 2008. In Pennsylvania Obama leads 52-46, while in
Wisconsin his advantage is 51-48.

The same basic formula that pushed Obama to victory in 2008 is what has him
favored to win both of these states again. In Pennsylvania he’s up big with
women (57/42), African Americans (90/8), and voters under 30 (66/34). It’s a
similar story in Wisconsin where he’s up 54/44 with women, 63/32 with non-white
voters, and 55/45 with young people. Obama also has an advantage in both states
with independent voters- it’s 49/45 in Pennsylvania and 57/40 in Wisconsin.

“Barack Obama’s not going to win these states by as much as he did in 2008
but he still looks like a pretty clear favorite to take both of them,” said
Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

Democrats are also favored to hold on to the Senate seats in both of these
states. In Wisconsin’s open contest Tammy Baldwin leads Republican foe Tommy
Thompson 51-48, thanks to a 55/41 advantage with independents. Voters aren’t
particularly in love with either candidate. Thompson has a 44/48 favorability
rating and Baldwin’s is 44/50. But it looks like the Democratic lean of the
state might put her over the top.

In Pennsylvania incumbent Bob Casey leads challenger Tom Smith 52-44, aided
by 15% crossover support from Republicans and a 49/41 advantage with
independents. Casey’s approval is back in positive territory at 42/41 after
being in the red on several recent polls and despite the millions Smith has put
into the race voters still aren’t that enamored with him- he has a 38%
favorability rating with 40% of voters giving him negative marks.

PPP surveyed 790
likely voters in Pennsylvania and 1,256 in Wisconsin on November 2nd
and 3rd. The margin of error for Pennsylvania is +/-3.5% and for Wisconsin it’s
+/-2.8%.  This poll was not paid for
or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are
conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Pennsylvania Toplines

Q1 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney.
If the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 1%

Q2 The candidates for US Senate are Democrat
Bob Casey and Republican Tom Smith. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Bob Casey ……………………………………………… 52%
Tom Smith………………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bob
Casey’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .42%
Disapprove…………. .41%
Not sure …………….. .16%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Smith?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Tom Corbett’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .33%
Disapprove…………. .44%
Not sure …………….. .24%

Q8 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
Governor today, would you vote for Republican
Tom Corbett or his Democratic opponent?
Tom Corbett ……….. .37%
Democratic
opponent……………..47%
Not sure …………….. .16%

Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%

Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%

Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 48%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 14%

Q12 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 83%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%

Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%

Wisconsin Toplines

Q1 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 1%

Q2 The candidates for Senate are Democrat
Tammy Baldwin and Republican Tommy
Thompson. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Tammy Baldwin……………………………………….. 51%
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 2%

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tammy Baldwin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tommy Thompson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Scott Walker’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 51%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q8 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
Governor today, would you vote for Republican
Scott Walker or his Democratic opponent?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 50%
Democratic opponent……………………………….. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%

Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%

Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%

Q12 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 89%
Other……………………………………………………… 11%

Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45 years old, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If
you are older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 16%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 29%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 35%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

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