NJ on the 2013 Governor’s race and 2016 Presidential

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest New Jersey poll finds Chris Christie hard to beat in a hypothetical match up for next year’s Governor’s race when pitted against Democrats Cory Booker, Barbara Buono, Richard Codey, Bruce Springsteen and Steve Sweeney. Booker polled closest to Christie, 14 points behind, compared to former Governor Richard Codey, trailing by 22 points. State Senators Steve Sweeney and Barbara Buono fared worse against Christie than The Boss did, with a 36 point spread for Springsteen, to Sweeney’s 37 and Buono’s 40 point deficit. While the news for Democrats is dismal, it’s not surprising- Christie’s approval has never been higher, at 67%. What is surprising is how he performed among women and Democrats. On the topic of Hurricane Sandy, women approved his handling of the storm 91-8 and Democrats 90-9.

When asked who they would vote for President in 2016, Republican Primary voters chose Chris Christie, at 48%. Although Republicans are somewhat ambivalent on whether they’d like to see Christie run to President in 2016- 66% would like him to, as opposed to 35% who would not like him to or are unsure- he performed significantly better than the runner up, Marco Rubio, at 14%. Jeb Bush took the #3 pick with 10% and the bottom six candidates received a total of 23% of the vote. Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, Condoleezza Rice and Rick Santorum all performed better among women than men, with women favoring Christie 54-41.

Among Democratic Primary voters, Hillary Clinton was the easy favorite at 58%. Andrew Cuomo and Joe Biden were tied for second at 12% each. Among the two largest ideological demographics, respondents who consider themselves “somewhat liberal” or “somewhat moderate”, Clinton swept support with 65% and 52% respectively.

“Chris Christie is going to be heard to beat for Governor next year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But New Jersey voters are still feeling ambivalent about a White House bid from him.”

PPP surveyed 600 New Jersey voters, 268 Republican Primary voters and 300 Democratic Primary voters from November 26^th to 28^th. The MOE for the 600 NJ voters is +/-4%, the MOE for the 300 Democratic Primary voters is +/-5.66% and the MOE for the 268 Republican primary voters is +/- 6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Chris Christie’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 67%
Disapprove...................................................... 25%
Not sure .......................................................... 8%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of how Chris
Christie handled Hurricane Sandy?
Approve .......................................................... 89%
Disapprove...................................................... 9%
Not sure .......................................................... 2%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Cory Booker?
Favorable........................................................ 48%
Unfavorable .................................................... 20%
Not sure .......................................................... 32%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Barbara Buono?
Favorable........................................................ 9%
Unfavorable .................................................... 19%
Not sure .......................................................... 72%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Richard Codey?
Favorable........................................................ 34%
Unfavorable .................................................... 23%
Not sure .......................................................... 43%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bruce Springsteen?
Favorable........................................................ 54%
Unfavorable .................................................... 23%
Not sure .......................................................... 22%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Sweeney?
Favorable........................................................ 14%
Unfavorable .................................................... 27%
Not sure .......................................................... 59%

Q8 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Chris Christie and Democrat Cory
Booker, who would you vote for?
Chris Christie .................................................. 50%
Cory Booker.................................................... 36%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q9 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Chris Christie and Democrat
Barbara Buono, who would you vote for?
Chris Christie .................................................. 60%
Barbara Buono................................................ 20%
Not sure .......................................................... 21%

Q10 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Chris Christie and Democrat
Richard Codey, who would you vote for?
Chris Christie .................................................. 53%
Richard Codey ................................................ 31%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%

Q11 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Chris Christie and Democrat Bruce
Springsteen, who would you vote for?
Chris Christie .................................................. 61%
Bruce Springsteen .......................................... 25%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q12 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Chris Christie and Democrat Steve
Sweeney, who would you vote for?
Chris Christie .................................................. 57%
Steve Sweeney............................................... 20%
Not sure .......................................................... 23%

Q13 Would you like for Chris Christie to run for
President in 2016, or not?
Would like him to ............................................ 38%
Would not........................................................ 44%
Not sure .......................................................... 17%

Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Biden?
Favorable........................................................ 52%
Unfavorable .................................................... 39%
Not sure .......................................................... 9%

Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable........................................................ 67%
Unfavorable .................................................... 27%
Not sure .......................................................... 6%

Q16 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Andrew Cuomo?
Favorable........................................................ 46%
Unfavorable .................................................... 23%
Not sure .......................................................... 31%

Q17 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Joe Biden........................................................ 41%
Chris Christie .................................................. 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

Q18 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 52%
Chris Christie .................................................. 40%
Not sure .......................................................... 8%

Q19 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Andrew Cuomo and Republican
Chris Christie, who would you vote for?
Andrew Cuomo ............................................... 35%
Chris Christie .................................................. 50%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%

Q20 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama................................................ 57%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 36%
Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 6%

Q21 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 9%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 26%
Moderate......................................................... 35%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 20%
Very conservative ........................................... 10%

Q22 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 57%
Man................................................................. 43%

Q23 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 48%
Republican...................................................... 25%
Independent/Other.......................................... 27%

Q24 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic.......................................................... 12%
White .............................................................. 69%
African-American ............................................ 14%
Other............................................................... 5%

Q25 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45........................................................... 42%
46 to 65........................................................... 38%
Older than 65.................................................. 20%

Democratic Primary Toplines

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Cory Booker?
Favorable........................................................ 62%
Unfavorable .................................................... 15%
Not sure .......................................................... 23%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Barbara Buono?
Favorable........................................................ 10%
Unfavorable .................................................... 17%
Not sure .......................................................... 73%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Richard Codey?
Favorable........................................................ 45%
Unfavorable .................................................... 15%
Not sure .......................................................... 40%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Sweeney?
Favorable........................................................ 16%
Unfavorable .................................................... 23%
Not sure .......................................................... 60%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Biden?
Favorable........................................................ 75%
Unfavorable .................................................... 16%
Not sure .......................................................... 9%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable........................................................ 84%
Unfavorable .................................................... 11%
Not sure .......................................................... 5%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Andrew Cuomo?
Favorable........................................................ 57%
Unfavorable .................................................... 14%
Not sure .......................................................... 28%

Q8 Who would you most like to see as the
Democratic candidate for Governor next year,
given the choices of Cory Booker, Barbara
Buono, Richard Codey, and Steve Sweeney?
Cory Booker.................................................... 46%
Barbara Buono................................................ 7%
Richard Codey ................................................ 23%
Steve Sweeney............................................... 6%
Someone else................................................. 7%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%

Q9 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton,
Andrew Cuomo, Martin O’Malley, Deval
Patrick, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner, and
Elizabeth Warren, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic candidate for President
in 2016?
Joe Biden........................................................ 12%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 58%
Andrew Cuomo ............................................... 12%
Martin O'Malley............................................... 2%
Deval Patrick................................................... 2%
Brian Schweitzer ............................................. 0%
Mark Warner ................................................... 2%
Elizabeth Warren ............................................ 6%
Someone else/Undecided............................... 7%

Q10 If neither Hillary Clinton nor Joe Biden ran for
President in 2016, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic nominee?
Andrew Cuomo ............................................... 37%
Martin O'Malley............................................... 3%
Deval Patrick................................................... 4%
Brian Schweitzer ............................................. 1%
Mark Warner ................................................... 2%
Elizabeth Warren ............................................ 14%
Someone else/Undecided............................... 38%

Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 21%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 36%
Moderate......................................................... 34%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 7%
Very conservative ........................................... 2%

Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 57%
Man................................................................. 43%

Q13 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic.......................................................... 10%
White .............................................................. 70%
African-American ............................................ 14%
Other............................................................... 6%

Q14 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45........................................................... 40%
46 to 65........................................................... 38%
Older than 65.................................................. 22%

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Rand Paul,
Condoleezza Rice, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan,
and Rick Santorum, who would you most like to
see as the GOP candidate for President in
2016?
Jeb Bush......................................................... 10%
Chris Christie .................................................. 48%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 3%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 1%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 5%
Condoleezza Rice........................................... 6%
Marco Rubio ................................................... 14%
Paul Ryan ....................................................... 7%
Rick Santorum................................................ 1%
Someone else/Undecided............................... 5%

Q2 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 2%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 8%
Moderate......................................................... 28%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 37%
Very conservative ........................................... 25%

Q3 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 51%
Man................................................................. 49%

Q4 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45........................................................... 32%
46 to 65........................................................... 39%
Older than 65.................................................. 29%

Comments

[Tothian]

You can't exactly include both Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio in a poll together. If one of them were to run, the other one wouldn't run. They support each other too strongly. I doubt Jeb Bush will run, if he was going to he would have done so already. By 2016, it would have been 6 years since his successor was elected. His son, George P. Bush, likely has more of a political future than Jeb does at this point.

At this point in time, the 2016 Republican primary looks to be Christie versus Rubio. Although I'd like to see them run together on a ticket.

Other good choices could include Rand Paul, and/or Ted Cruz.

As far as the Democratic side goes, it depends on how tired or rejuvinated Hillary Clinton is in 2 years (since primary season will begin in early 2015), and Martin O'Malley has suggested that he will run if Hillary Clinton doesn't run.

Andrew Cuomo first needs to win re-election in 2014, which should be easy for him, although not necessarily guarenteed, due to the fact that his approval ratings went down due to lack of support for his strict gun policies.

I think Joe Biden will run and since Hillary does not seem to (at least at this point in time) want to run for President again in 2016, Joe Biden will be the Dem Frontrunner. With possibly Martin O'Malley as either his VP and/or primary runner up.

Just my thoughts on this. What do the rest of you think about this?