Polls

Obama up by 2 in New Hampshire

| Tom Jensen


Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –

PPP’s newest New Hampshire poll finds Barack Obama with a narrow lead over Mitt
Romney in the state, 49/47. That represents a three point improvement for Obama
from a week ago when he had trailed 49/48.

Granite State voters narrowly approve of the job Obama’s doing, 49/48.
They’re not terribly fond of Romney with 47% of voters rating him favorably to
51% with a negative opinion. They trust Romney more than Obama by a 49/47
margin on the economy, but they trust Obama over Romney by a 51/46 spread on
foreign policy. New Hampshire voters mostly think Obama’s victories in the last
two debates equaled out Romney’s big win the first debate- asked to say who was
the winner of the debates as a whole Romney wins out just narrowly, 46/43.

Women are the key group keeping Obama ahead in New Hampshire. He has a 57/39
advantage with them that’s just enough to make up for his trailing by a 56/39
margin with men. Romney has a 47/45 advantage with independents, but Obama’s
overcoming that by winning over slightly more Republican voters (9%) than
Romney is Democrats (6%).

In the Governor’s race Democrat Maggie Hassan continues to be the favorite
over Republican foe Ovide Lamontagne, leading 48/44. Hassan has considerably
better favorability numbers (46/40) than Lamontagne who is quite unpopular with
only 41% of voters rating him positively to 51% with a negative opinion.

Hassan is up 55/36 with women and has a 47/41 lead with independents. She’s
led all three polls we’ve done of the Governor’s race since the general
election field was set.

Democrats lead the generic legislative ballot 46/43, including a 40/37 lead
with independents. That should put them in position to pick up a lot of seats
this fall.

“New Hampshire continues to pretty much look like a toss up,” said Dean
Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But there has been a slight
movement in Barack Obama’s direction over the last week, following his victory
in the final debate.”

PPP surveyed 874
likely voters from October 26th to 28th. The margin of error for the
survey is +/-3.3%.  This poll was not paid for
or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are
conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%

Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney.
If the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Maggie Hassan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ovide Lamontagne?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q6 The candidates for Governor are Democrat
Maggie Hassan and Republican Ovide
Lamontagne. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Maggie Hassan……………………………………….. 48%
Ovide Lamontagne…………………………………… 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%

Q7 Who do you think won the Presidential debates
overall?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q8 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of the economy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q9 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of foreign policy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q10 If there was an election for the state legislature
today, would you vote Democratic or
Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q11 Are you very excited, somewhat excited, or not
at all excited about voting in the 2012
elections?
Very excited ……………………………………………. 60%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 25%
Not at all excited ……………………………………… 15%

Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 35%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 12%

Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%

Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 30%
Republican……………………………………………… 28%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 42%

Q15 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%

Q16 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 48%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

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