Polls

Obama lead in Ohio down to 1 point

| Tom Jensen


Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –

PPP’s newest Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 49-48, down from
a 51-46 advantage a week ago. Romney’s closing the gap thanks to a lead among
independents (49/42) and because the Republican base is continuing to become
more unified around him with 90% of GOP partisans now saying they’ll support
him compared to 85% a week ago. Ohio voters think Obama won the debate this
week 48-39, but that doesn’t seem to extend to more people voting for him.

Obama does have one big advantage in Ohio though- he’s already winning the
election there. 21% of voters in the state say they’ve already voted, and they
report having supported Obama 66/34. Romney has the 52/44 advantage among those
yet to cast their ballots but obviously it’s easier to count on votes that are
already in the bank.

There are some troubling signs for Obama in the poll though. Ohioans trust
Romney more on the economy by a 51/47 margin and trust him more on Libya 49/47.
Obama had the advantage on each of those issues in our poll last weekend.
Voters do trust Obama over Romney by a 52/44 margin on women’s issues, and
Obama leads 55/41 with female voters in the poll.

Sherrod Brown continues to lead in the Senate race, 49-44 over Josh Mandel.
That’s a little bit closer than it was last week at 49/42, reflecting
conservative voters unifying around Mandel a little bit as the election nears.
Brown is holding onto his own support though. He has a narrowly positive
approval rating at 44/43, while Mandel continues to be quite unpopular with 38%
of voters rating him favorably to 50% with a negative opinion.

“Our Ohio poll reflects the new reality of this election- every battleground
state is looking like a toss up,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy
Polling. “Our most recent polls in Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, North
Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin have all found the candidates within 2
points of each other.”

PPP surveyed 532 likely
Ohio voters from October 18th to 20th.. The margin of
error for the survey is +/-4.3%.  This poll was not paid for
or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are
conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Sherrod Brown’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .44%
Disapprove…………. .43%
Not sure …………….. .12%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Josh Mandel?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q6 The candidates for US Senate are Democrat
Sherrod Brown and Republican Josh Mandel. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Sherrod Brown………………………………………… 49%
Josh Mandel …………………………………………… 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%

Q7 Have you already voted, either at an early
voting site or with an absentee ballot?
Yes………………………………………………………… 21%
No …………………………………………………………. 79%

Q8 Issue 2 would remove the authority of elected
representatives and grant new authority to
appointed officials to establish congressional
and state legislative district lines. It would
create a state-funded commission of appointed
individuals from a limited pool of applicants to
replace the aforementioned. The commission
would consist of 12 members as follows: four
affiliated with the largest political party, four
affiliated with the second largest political party,
and four not affiliated with either of the two
largest political parties. Affirmative votes of
seven of 12 members are needed to select a
plan. If the election was today, would you vote
for or against Issue 2?
For ………………………………………………………… 35%
Against…………………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q9 Who do you think won the Presidential debate
on Tuesday night?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q10 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of the economy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%

Q11 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of Libya?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q12 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on women’s issues?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q13 Are you very excited, somewhat excited, or not
at all excited about voting in the 2012
elections?
Very excited ……………………………………………. 62%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 24%
Not at all excited ……………………………………… 15%

Q14 If there was an election for Congress today,
would you vote Democratic or Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q15 Do you think early voting should be available to
all voters the weekend before the election, or
not?
It should …………………………………………………. 57%
It should not ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q16 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Secretary of State Jon Husted?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%

Q17 Generally speaking, in 2014, do you think you
will you vote for Republican Jon Husted or his
Democratic opponent for Secretary of State?
Jon Husted……………………………………………… 37%
Democratic opponent……………………………….. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%

Q18 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 14%

Q19 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%

Q20 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 23%

Q21 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 80%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%

Q22 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 35%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

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