Polls

Minnesota supports gay marriage

| Tom Jensen


Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s newest poll on Minnesota’s amendment to ban gay marriage finds it running slightly behind, with 46% of voters planning to support it and 49% opposed.

That represents a 4 point shift compared to a month ago when it led for passage 48-47. The movement over the last month has been with independent voters. Where they supported the amendment 51/42 in September, they’ve now almost flipped and oppose it by a 52/42 margin. Women (43/51) are stronger in their opposition to it than men (49/47) are in their support. Most of the margin against the amendment is being provided by younger voters who say they plan to vote against it 53/38.

In general 47% of voters in the state say they support gay marriage to 43% who are opposed. And 74% of voters, including even 52% of Republicans, support some form of legal recognition for gay couples either in the form of marriage or civil unions.

“The marriage amendment in Minnesota continues to look like a toss up,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Voters are very closely divided on the issue.”

Things are starting to get interesting with Minnesota’s voter ID amendment. When we polled on it in June it was leading for passage by a 58/34 margin. By September that had tightened to a 56/39 advantage. And now it’s leading only 51/43. Democrats are now even more opposed to the voter ID amendment (23/71) than they are to the one on marriage. And although independents continue to support it their 52/41 favor for it is down a good deal from 62/33 a month ago. This fight may end up a lot closer than people initially expected.

Democrats have a 52/40 advantage on the generic legislative ballot, including a 48/34 lead with independents. It’s always hard to say exactly what a generic ballot translates to in terms of seats gained, but that should lead to a pretty healthy number of pick ups for the Democrats.

PPP surveyed 937 likely Minnesota voters from October 5th to 8th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/-3.2%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Should the Minnesota Constitution be
amended to provide that only a union of one
man and one woman shall be valid or
recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?
Yes………………………………………………………… 46%
No …………………………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Won’t vote on the amendment …………………… 1%

Q2 Should the Minnesota Constitution be
amended to require all voters to present valid
photo identification to vote and to require the
state to provide free identification to eligible
voters?
Yes………………………………………………………… 51%
No …………………………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Won’t vote on the amendment …………………… 0%

Q3 If there was an election for the legislature
today, do you think you would vote for the DFL
or Republican candidate from your district?
DFL candidate ………………………………………… 52%
Republican candidate ………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q4 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal……………………………………………………… 47%
Illegal …………………………………………………….. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q5 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..43%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………31%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%

Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Mark Dayton’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 53%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q7 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
Governor today, would you vote for Democrat
Mark Dayton or his Republican opponent?
Mark Dayton …………………………………………… 52%
Republican opponent ……………………………….. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Al
Franken’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q9 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
the Senate today, would you vote for Democrat
Al Franken or his Republican opponent?
Al Franken ……………………………………………… 50%
Republican opponent ……………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Norm Coleman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%

Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q13 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Al Franken and Republican Michele
Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Al Franken ……………………………………………… 55%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q14 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Al Franken and Republican Norm
Coleman, who would you vote for?
Al Franken ……………………………………………… 51%
Norm Coleman………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q15 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Al Franken and Republican Tim
Pawlenty, who would you vote for?
Al Franken ……………………………………………… 51%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q16 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jesse Ventura?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q17 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of R.T. Rybak?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%

Q18 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 14%

Q19 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%

Q20 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 38%
Republican……………………………………………… 29%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 32%

Q21 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 93%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%

Q22 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45 years old, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If
you are older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

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