Obama up 4 in Ohio

PPP's newest poll of the Presidential race in Ohio finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 49-45, down just slightly from a 50-45 advantage on our last independent poll there three weeks ago.

It's a mistake to think based on recent polling in Ohio that the race there is over. Obama is not popular in the state, with 48% of voters approving of him to 49% who disapprove. Among voters who remain undecided there just 13% think he's doing a good job to 65% who give him poor marks. That doesn't mean those folks will move to Romney en masse because they don't particularly like him either (a 26/37 favorability rating) but it does mean there's potential for the race there to get within tossup range over the final five weeks.

The reason Obama continues to lead in Ohio despite not being all that popular in his own right is Romney's inability to make a positive impression on voters in the state. Only 45% of voters see him favorably to 49% with a negative opinion, numbers virtually unchanged from 44/49 on our previous poll. Romney shot himself in the foot with his recent '47%' comments. By a 53/42 margin voters thought they were inappropriate and 40% say they made them less likely to vote for Romney compared to only 31% who considered them a positive. The comments haven't caused Romney to fall further behind in Ohio, but they may have hindered his ability to flip the reluctant Obama voters he'll need to emerge victorious in the state.

One issue that's killing Romney and may end up being what puts Obama over the top in the state is the auto industry. 73% of voters say the candidates' records on the auto industry is important to their votes, including 44% who say it's 'very important.' And by a 54/31 margin voters say they think Obama has been better for the auto industry in Ohio than Romney. If Ohio ends up being a lot tighter in the end than it is right now this could prove to be the decisive issue.

A few other notes from Ohio:

-Key for Obama is that he's down only 49-46 with white voters and 48-47 with seniors. Those are groups Romney's going to need to run the score up with if he wants to win, and right now it's not happening.

-66% of Democrats in Ohio say they're 'very excited' about voting this fall compared to 62% of Republicans. It continues to look as if there will be little or no pro-Republican enthusiasm gap this year compared to 2008.

-Obama and Romney tie at 47% in terms of who voters trust more on the economy, but Obama has a 49/45 advantage on foreign policy.

Full results here

Comments

[Khyber Jones]

While I agree that it is far too early for Democrats to celebrate, it seems doubtful that Romney has a path to victory if Obama is basically running even with seniors and white voters. I think that's why we see so many polls with higher margins for Obama in the state. In 2008, McCain beat Obama by 11 points among seniors and 6 points among whites in Ohio according to exit polls ans Obama won by 4+ points. With the PPP internals, which are not too different from other polls, it is not unreasonable to state that Obama is up by more than 4 points. 6.5-7 points might be the actual current margin.

[Robbie Glasscen]

PPP: Obama up 4
Columbus/Dispatch Poll: Obama up 9

This is good news, still Democrats must work like their 4-9-pts behind and get their voters to the polls starting Oct 2 in OH.

[mgj]

As an Obama supporter I will take these this. I rather be in Obama's position but I am glad to know that Obama's supporters have their work cut out for them.

[flymom]

C'mon Ohio, bad economy, bad foreign policy, bad for America!!!

[Pessimist]

so I tend to take the margin of error very seriously. Btw I expect Obama to lose the advantage on foreign policy this month and see how that shakes things up.

[Davis]

Isn't there more of the Iowa poll to be released? I thought there would be a miscellany portion dealing with state legislative ballot preference and the judicial retention vote.

[stand]

I see the numbers but cant accept that dems are more energized than reps this year with no difference from 2008. Every rep I know thinks that an Obama re election means the end of America. Mitt Romney is not as important as conservatives scared to death that Obam is going to destroy the constitution and sik us in debt.

[David]

Gravis Marketing poll has Johnson at over 10% in Ohio - Latest Ohio poll:

If the Presidential election was held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt Romney, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, for whom would you vote?

• Barack Obama 44.5% {46.47%}
• Mitt Romney 37.8% {42.39%}
• Gary Johnson 10.6% {4.5%}
• Other/Unsure 7.1%

[Obama 2012]

David - I find those Gary Johnson #s very hard to believe... that said; as an Obama supporter I hope Johnson does get 10% ... for two reasons:

#1 I think he'd pull more from Romney than Obama in most states (as this poll seems to indicate is the case in Ohio.)

#2 I think it would be a good thing for our country if the Libertarians got to 5%+ and thus qualified for public funding next time around. Not because I think the Libertarians are the answer to our country's problems, I don't. I think they are dead wrong on many of the most important issues.

But I also believe that they speak truth on a few issues that both the GOP and the Democrats are full of it on; most obviously foreign policy and civil liberties issues (such as marijuana legalization.)

My hope is that if the Libertarians were to gain support to the point where they were a serious choice ... that they would actually push the Democrats left on these issues in order to keep their supporters (meanwhile the Libertarians could continue to pull support from the GOP which is of course a total scam of a party.)

[Inez Babington]

All of you Dims crowing about this poll -- you obviously haven't clicked on the internals:
Question 16
Party identification
Dem 41% Rep 36% Ind 23%

This is not what current registration percentages are for Ohio.

Obama is not up by 4 in reality. And Election Day will be about reality.

[skyking239]

Good news as an Ohio Democrat I was worried about not being able to make it to the polls. So now it seems I don't have to worry. To all of my Democrat friends out there you don't need to vote on November 6th. Why waste the time, effort, and gas driving to the poll. Our guy is going to win even if you don't vote. So relax, stay home or go to the well fare office or the Obama Phone center. Happy days are gonna be here again.