Polls

Obama leads by 5 in Ohio

| Tom Jensen


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Raleigh, N.C. –

PPP’s newest Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading 51-46, a 5 point lead not too
different from our last poll two weeks ago when he led 49-45.

The key finding on this poll may be how the early voters are breaking out.
19% of people say they’ve already cast their ballots and they report having
voted for Obama by a 76-24 margin. Romney has a 51-45 advantage with those who
haven’t voted yet, but the numbers make it clear that he already has a lot of
ground to make up in the final three weeks before the election.

We’ve found a major improvement in Mitt Romney’s image in most of the states
that we’ve polled since the Presidential debate, but Ohio is an exception. His
favorability now is a 45/51 spread, showing no improvement from his 45/49
breakdown two weeks ago. Obama meanwhile has seen a small spike in his approval
rating, from 48/49 to 50/48.

The Vice Presidential debate may have given Obama at least a small boost as
well. 46% of Ohio voters think Joe Biden won it to 37% who believe Paul Ryan
was the victor. Biden’s advantage is 44/32 with independents. 62% of both
Democrats and Republicans say they’re ‘very excited’ to vote this fall,
reversing a trend we saw in some post-Presidential debate polling of GOP voters
expressing more enthusiasm about the election this year.

In the US Senate race Sherrod Brown leads Republican challenger Josh Mandel
49-42, little change from a 49-41 advantage two weeks ago. Brown has narrowly
positive approval numbers on this poll with 45% of voters giving him good marks
to 43% who disapprove. Mandel meanwhile continues to be unpopular with only 37%
of voters expressing a positive opinion of him to 50% with a negative one.

“Barack Obama’s poll numbers have dropped a fair amount nationally over the
last week but he’s holding strong in Ohio,” said Dean Debnam, President of
Public Policy Polling. “And if he can still win there, he’ll likely win the
election.”

PPP surveyed 880 likely
Ohio voters on October 12th and 13th. The margin of error for the
survey is +/-3.3%.  This poll was not paid for
or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are
conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Sherrod Brown’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .45%
Disapprove…………. .43%
Not sure …………….. .13%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Josh Mandel?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q6 The candidates for US Senate are Democrat
Sherrod Brown and Republican Josh Mandel. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Sherrod Brown………………………………………… 49%
Josh Mandel …………………………………………… 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q7 Have you already voted, either at an early
voting site or with an absentee ballot?
Yes………………………………………………………… 19%
No …………………………………………………………. 81%

Q8 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of the economy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q9 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of Libya?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Biden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q12 Who do you think won the Vice Presidential
debate: Joe Biden or Paul Ryan?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 46%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q13 Generally speaking, in 2014, do you think you
would you vote for Republican Josh Mandel or
his Democratic opponent for State Treasurer?
Josh Mandel ………. .39%
Democratic
opponent……………..40%
Not sure …………….. .20%

Q14 Do you think Josh Mandel is mature enough to
be a US Senator, or not?
He is …………………. .44%
He is not…………….. .42%
Not sure …………….. .14%

Q15 Are you very excited, somewhat excited, or not
at all excited about voting in the 2012
elections?
Very excited ……………………………………………. 60%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 26%
Not at all excited ……………………………………… 15%

Q16 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Kasich’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .42%
Disapprove…………. .41%
Not sure …………….. .17%

Q17 Generally speaking, if there was an election
today, would you vote for Republican John
Kasich or his Democratic opponent?
John Kasich ……….. .45%
Democratic
opponent……………..42%
Not sure …………….. .13%

Q18 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Rob
Portman’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .35%
Disapprove…………. .25%
Not sure …………….. .40%

Q19 Do you approve or disapprove of House
Speaker John Boehner’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .33%
Disapprove…………. .46%
Not sure …………….. .21%

Q20 If there was an election for Congress today,
would you vote Democratic or Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q21 Issue 2 would remove the authority of elected
representatives and grant new authority to
appointed officials to establish congressional
and state legislative district lines. It would
create a state-funded commission of appointed
individuals from a limited pool of applicants to
replace the aforementioned. The commission
would consist of 12 members as follows: four
affiliated with the largest political party, four
affiliated with the second largest political party,
and four not affiliated with either of the two
largest political parties. Affirmative votes of
seven of 12 members are needed to select a
plan. If the election was today, would you vote
for or against Issue 2?
For ………………………………………………………… 37%
Against…………………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q22 Looking back, do you support or oppose the
bailout of the auto industry?
Support ………………………………………………….. 54%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q23 Who do you think would be better for the
automotive industry in Ohio: Barack Obama or
Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q24 Is the candidates’ for President records on the
automotive industry very important, somewhat
important, or not that important to you?
Very important…………………………………………. 42%
Somewhat important ………………………………… 37%
Not that important ……………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q25 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%

Q26 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q27 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 24%

Q28 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q29 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

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