Obama leads by 5 in Ohio

PPP's first post-conventions poll in Ohio finds Barack Obama with a 5 point lead over Mitt Romney, 50-45. This is the largest lead PPP has found for Obama in an Ohio poll since early May. Last month Obama led 48-45.

Both candidates have seen their images improve with Ohio voters in the wake of the conventions. Obama now breaks even in his approval rating at 48%, after being under water with 46% of voters approving and 51% disapproving of him a month ago. Romney's numbers are up from a 41/52 favorability rating a month ago as well, but he still remains unpopular. Only 44% see him favorably to 49% with a negative opinion.

Romney actually leads 46-44 with independents but Obama has the overall advantage thanks to a more unified party base. He leads 86/11 with Democrats, compared to Romney's 83/13 advantage with Republicans. Obama's 75 point lead within his own party is up from 70 points a month ago, suggesting that his party has coalesced around him a little bit more in the wake of a successful convention. By a 47/35 margin Ohio voters say they think the Democrats had a better convention than the Republicans.

Obama's leading in Ohio because he's not as weak there with some large voter blocs as he is in other states. He trails only 48-46 with men and 50-46 with whites, and actually leads 49-47 with seniors. His performance with those groups is far better than it is nationally- Romney would need much wider leads with them if he was going to take Ohio.

Despite chatter that Obama's convention speech was not up to his normal standards Ohio voters still say by a 60-31 margin that Obama gives better speeches than Romney. His position in the state may also be helped by the fact that the folks who gave the major convention speeches Tuesday night are more popular than he is: Bill Clinton has a 57/34 favorability rating and Michelle Obama's is 57/35. Romney's wife is an asset for him too- 54% of voters see Ann Romney favorably with 28% holding an unfavorable opinion. But Mrs. Obama wins out in the more popular wife category by a 49/41 margin.

Out of the other Democrats who gave primetime speeches last week Julian Castro made the most positive impression and has a 28/17 favorability rating. Voters are split on Elizabeth Warren at 23/23 and Martin O'Malley doesn't seem to have attracted much attention with 86% of Ohioans saying they have no opinion about him one way or the other.

It's hard to see a path to victory for Mitt Romney without Ohio, and Obama continues to be in a strong position there with eight weeks to go.

Full results here

Comments

[Joe Martin]

So it looks like Romney is going to be in the lead once D's and R's normalize and come back home.

[redscott]

If anything, the support for Obama reported in this poll probably understates the support he'd get with African Americans (08 97 to 2, 81 to 15 here) and with Hispanics and Asians (08 around 64 to 30, 51 to 40 here). Maybe that's why there's been all this talk about Obma having an 8-9 point lead here from other internal polls; if the numbers for AA and Hispanics/Asians were more realistic in this poll, that's the kind of overall lead he's have.

[Sophie]

This seems to agree well with Republican internal polling, which (reportedly - see here) has Obama 4-5 points ahead

[Jay]

Obama leading with seniors is a new development...if that's something to do with Clinton's speech (and seeing the stats with seniors in NC, MT, and MN should help indicate that) and Obama starts leading with seniors, even narrowly, then this election is over.

[DeVan]

POLL: O 49% R 45%…
● FLASHBACK: CARTER +4 OVER REAGAN IN SEPT 1980 [+8 IN OCT]…
● FLASHBACK: DUKAKIS +17 OVER BUSH AFTER DNC 1988…

[Obama 2012]

It seems possible that the 81 to 15 AA #s are explained by people messing with pollsters. It's not hard to imagine a Republican saying they are going to vote for Romney and then saying they are black to troll the pollster.

Considering the kind of childish behavior from Republicans you see all of the internet, It wouldn't be surprising if quite a few of them do stuff like this when they get polled (especially a robo poll...)

[Mike 55534]

As a full Repug I wish that our side would stop saying the US is a center right country. HA! Since when? It is a Center LEFT country and any Repug running for any office will have a difficult time. Please fellow righties face the truth. The discussion will now shift between the Left and Far Left. Sad but true.

[Nparga29]

PPP, a Democrap poll to suppress GOP turnout

good luck PPP

[B Butz]

These polls are liberal propaganda, don't believe them. PPP Polling is run by hard core leftists and their polls are part of the Left's disinformation campaign. This supposed enthusiasm for Obama is fraudulent. In reality, the American people have awoken and are going to vote Obama out. Don't let the left demoralize you with these polls. We are down to crunch time in this campaign, don't get rattled. Keep the faith, keep fighting.

[Zaggs]

+4 dem sample when 2010 Ohio was 36D/37R/28I? Good luck with that.

[B Butz]

PPP Polling is run by hardcore leftists and their polls are part of the Left's disinformation campaign. Barack Obama is going to lose this election, don't let these fraudulent polls shake your faith. The Left's policies have yielded abysmal results, what they have left is propaganda. This supposed support for Obama is a lie.

[Jason Marcus]

Is this among likely voters, or registered voters?

[David Kramer]

Where are the samples and your methodology?

[SamR]

Joe, you realize that there are not equal numbers of Dems and GOPers, right?

But I will say the internals of this poll are surprising.

[redscott]

Boy, the other side is getting twitchy with their tinfoil hat conspiracy theory stuff. Keep calm and take your meds, folks.

[Bill Mitchell]

Yawn another PPP poll another Democrat oversample. Yawn. What else is new?

[Dan]

Funny thing about PPP...they polled NC and have it 1 pt for Obama. The methodology was 47% Dem, 34% Rep, 20% Ind. 54% women, 46% men. Maybe they should have just polled the DNC.

[Dan]

The Ohio Poll was 41% Dem, 37% Rep and 22% Ind. 54% Women, 46% Men. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_9912.pdf

[Dan]

Question 4 was this>>>Did the Democratic convention make you more
or less likely to vote for Democrats this year, or
did it not make a difference?
More likely.............. .32%
Less likely .............. .32%
36%
Didn't make a
difference

[Rich]

Romney is not going to get 15% of the African American vote in any state, deep blue or dark red...Etch a sketch will be lucky to get 3% of the AA vote ANYWHERE..

Obama 2012

[Cat]

"Who do you think deserves more credit for the
killing of Osama bin Laden: Barack Obama or
Mitt Romney?" Why is this even a question???

[william riker]

The GOP wave in 2010 is not over and no amount of polling by democrat operatives will demoralize the vote to fire Obama. At the end of the day voters will not vote for personalities ("Michelle Obama gives a better speech") or pine for the 90's (Bill Clinton). They see trillion dollar a year deficits , a miserable employment picture , crushing regulations , and a federal government takeover of 20% of our economy through Obamacare.

Democrats are now a far left party as seen by their convention (the abortion convention) .....they are out of sync with the electorate

[kroyall@desolationboulevard.com]

So Romney takes Ohio based on your nonsensical party breakdown. No way does Obama have MORE enthusiasm among Democrats now than he did in 2008.

[Mom2ads]

Is it true that in this poll you had women +9, thus trying to reflect an Ohio that is 60% women, when the reality is they make up 51% of the population? Why was it necessary for you to vastly oversample women? Were you trying to skew the poll for Obama and the only way you could show the Obama lead was to pretend women make up 60% of Ohio's population? Really unethical and slimy.

[Exboyracer]

BButz -- Drop by fivethirtyeight.com read a little then come back and talk about the conspiracy thingy.

The charts on the right are fun too.

[ObamaFan]

Rich--Check out the poll, and you will see why it was a question! Only 63% think Obama was responsible!!!

[Obama 2012]

It's funny watching all of the right wingers flip out with their nutty conspiracy theory nonsense.

It's amusing to me the way they are in denial about losing.

Meanwhile lots of liberals are super paranoid even though Obama is winning.

Quite a contrast.

[SSA]

I am amazed that Romney even pulls 33% in a rustbelt state like Ohio that the GOp has Union-busted and smashed ruthlessly economically. Who are these 40-odd% that would vote Republican in Ohio???