Obama leads by 4 in Florida

PPP's newest Florida poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by a 50-46 margin in the state. That represents a 3 point improvement for Obama since PPP's last poll of the state, which was conducted the weekend after the Republican convention. It represents the largest lead PPP has found for Obama in Florida since early June.

Mitt Romney's image with Floridians has taken a turn in the wrong direction since his party gathered in Tampa for its convention. His favorability has dropped a net 9 points from +2 at 49/47 over Labor Day weekend to now -7 at 44/51. Romney's comments about the '47%' this week aren't doing him any favors. 89% of voters are familiar with them and 50% consider them to have been inappropriate to 44% who were ok with them. Most troubling for Romney independent voters considered the comments improper by a 58/37 margin and he trails Obama by a 51/40 spread with those folks who could determine the final outcome in the state.

Obama's lead in Florida isn't all about Romney losing ground though. He's pretty strong in his own right with 51% of voters approving of him to 47% who disapprove. That's up a net 7 points from 47/50 before the Democratic convention. This is the first time since April we've found his approval over 50% in the state. Perhaps more importantly Florida voters trust Obama over Romney on the issue of the economy by the same 50/46 margin as the overall numbers- Romney's not getting any traction on that front. And Obama leads 50-45 in terms of who voters have more faith in on foreign policy.

The main shift in the horse race comparing this poll to our last one has come with Democrats. Previously Romney was getting a pretty decent amount of crossover support from them, getting 18% to 79% for Obama. Now whether it's because they're warming up to Obama or getting fed up with Romney or both, Democratic voters are more united around their nominee with 83% planning to support the President to 13% for Romney.

Obama's up 55-41 with women, 67-29 with non-white voters, and 52-42 with folks under 65 in Florida. Romney has a 51-44 advantage with men, a 53-42 one with whites, and a 53-45 one with seniors.

One other important finding in Florida is that contra conventional wisdom for most of the year, Democrats are actually slightly more excited about voting this fall than Republicans are. 72% of Democrats say they're 'very excited' to vote in the election compared to 68% of GOP voters. And the single group most excited about voting is African Americans, 82% of whom say they are very excited.

And one final note- Romney releasing a year of his tax returns on Florida might be a start, but by a 52/39 margin voters in Florida say they'd like to see him release 12 years of his returns before the election.

Florida's still very close and it wouldn't take a huge shift to move it back to 50/50 status but for now Obama looks to be the slight favorite there.

Full results here

Comments

[Fran_b__]

Not sure how Obama is only leading 50-46 if Indies support him 51-40. Does this mean that he rates much more strongly with Republicans than Democrats?

Please explain ... different methodologies, polls?

[Amitharmony]

You're using a D + 8 sample for Florida?

Perhaps you mixed up Oregon for Florida.

[Stewman1965]

I'm not a pollster but when you see a direct correlation between the bump for Obama in your polls to the doubling of Dem sampling from +4 to +8, even you should know that's not good accurate polling... Just an observation...

[Jeff]

Mitt the Twit is toast no November.

[TheJollyNihilist]

The sample indicated for Florida is perfectly reasonable and completely in-line with registration in the state.

The poll's sample: Democrat 44 / Republican 36 / Independent 20.

Florida voter registration statistics: Democrat 41 / Republican 36 / Independent 21 / Minor party 3.

source: http://election.dos.state.fl.us/nvra/affiliation.asp

Seems perfectly reasonable and professional

[Obama 2012]

Stewman - Party ID is not static. Perhaps more people are IDing as Democrats these days.

[Obama 2012]

It's mindblowing that so many people approve of Romney's 47% comments. (44% say they are "appropriate") ... it's just sad that probably half of those people are among the 47% Romney was talking about. It just shows how ridiculously partisan our country has become. Nobody should think those comments are OK. You don't have to pretend that it's OK to call senior citizens, working class Americans, soldiers in combat zones, and disabled veterans lazy moochers just because you're Republican. Just admit it: Mitt Romney is a scumbag.

[Jmoss1976]

Seems an outlier, here's a disent. http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/barack-obama-mitt-romney-essentially-tied-in-florida-new-timesheraldbay/1252518

[Bill Mitchell]

Um, your idiotic poll assumes 8% more Democrats than Republicans will vote in 2012. That is completely ludicrous.

Translation? Romney is winning.

[Bill Mitchell]

Hey PPP,

We are onto your games.

[Alan Snipes]

This site has explained before that they don't weigh by party ID. How do you know that the party ID hasn't changed from the last time they polled?

[Obama 2012]

Bill Mitchell: Assuming your side is winning when it's clear you are losing is ... an interesting way to go about things. But you are going to have a bad case of the sads on November 6