Polls

Minnesota split on marriage amendment

| Tom Jensen


Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s newest
poll on the constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage in Minnesota finds it
virtually tied, with 48% of voters supporting the ban to 47% who oppose it. In
January we found 48/44 support for the ban, while in June we found 49/43
opposition. It looks like a toss up.

Women (52/41), Democrats (78/16), and voters under 45 (50/45) all oppose the
ban. Men (55/41), Republicans (80/17), independents (51/42), and seniors
(53/40) all support it in greater numbers though.

“It looks like Minnesota’s marriage amendment will go down to the wire,”
said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Voters in the state are
very closely divided in their attitudes about it.”

Minnesota’s voter ID amendment looks to be headed for more comfortable
passage, although the numbers have tightened up a little bit since our June
poll. It leads by 17 points, 56-39, compared to a 24 point lead at 58-34 the
last time we polled it. That movement is because Democrats have hardened in
their opposition to it, going from being against it just 54/36 to now 72/20.
But it retains overwhelming support from Republicans (88/9) and independents
(62/33).

Things are looking generally good for Democrats in state level politics.
Mark Dayton continues to have solid approval numbers with 48% of voters giving
him good marks to 37% who disapprove. That’s pretty identical to his 49/36
spread the last time we polled the state. Dayton would lead a generic
Republican opponent for reelection by a 51/38 spread. It’s impossible to say
what the political landscape will look like in 2014 but if Dayton was up this
year he’d have an easier time of it than he did in 2008.

Democrats lead the generic state legislative ballot by a 47/44 margin.
That’s a good deal tighter than June when they had a 48/36 advantage and it’s
hard to say what that will translate to in terms of the number of seats they
pick up this fall.

PPP surveyed 824 likely Minnesota voters on
September 10th and 11th. The margin of error for the overall survey
is +/-3.4%.  This poll was not paid for
or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are
conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Should the Minnesota Constitution be
amended to provide that only a union of one
man and one woman shall be valid or
recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?
Yes………………………………………………………… 48%
No …………………………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Won’t vote on the amendment …………………… 0%

Q2 Should the Minnesota Constitution be
amended to require all voters to present valid
photo identification to vote and to require the
state to provide free identification to eligible
voters?
Yes………………………………………………………… 56%
No …………………………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Won’t vote on the amendment …………………… 0%

Q3 If there was an election for the legislature
today, do you think you would vote for the DFL
or Republican candidate from your district?
DFL candidate ………………………………………… 47%
Republican candidate ………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q4 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal……………………………………………………… 43%
Illegal …………………………………………………….. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q5 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..40%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………32%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Mark Dayton’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .48%
Disapprove…………. .37%
Not sure …………….. .15%

Q7 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
Governor today, would you vote for Democrat
Mark Dayton or his Republican opponent?
Mark Dayton ………. .51%
Republican
opponent……………..38%
Not sure …………….. .10%

Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Al
Franken’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .49%
Disapprove…………. .42%
Not sure …………….. . 9%

Q9 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
the Senate today, would you vote for Democrat
Al Franken or his Republican opponent?
Al Franken …………. .48%
Republican
opponent……………..42%
Not sure …………….. .10%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Norm Coleman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%

Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q13 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Al Franken and Republican Michele
Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Al Franken ……………………………………………… 52%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q14 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Al Franken and Republican Norm
Coleman, who would you vote for?
Al Franken ……………………………………………… 50%
Norm Coleman………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q15 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Al Franken and Republican Tim
Pawlenty, who would you vote for?
Al Franken ……………………………………………… 50%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q16 Do you consider yourself to be a Minnesota
Twins fan, or not?
Consider yourself a Twins fan……………………. 67%
Do not ……………………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q17 (Twins fans:) Would you support or oppose
firing Ron Gardenhire?
Support ………………………………………………….. 9%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%

Q18 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%

Q19 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%

Q20 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%

Q21 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2
White …………………………………………………….. 92%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%

Q22 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

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