Polls

Obama has narrow lead in Wisconsin

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C.–
Barack Obama’s considerably weaker in Wisconsin than he was in 2008, but he still looks like the clear favorite to win the state again. We find him with 50% to 44% for Mitt Romney.

Obama actually has under water approval numbers in the state. 47% think he’s doing a good job, while 48% disapprove. But voters aren’t very high on Romney either. Only 41% rate him favorably, while 50% have a negative opinion of him.

One thing that could make the state look like much more of a toss up is if Romney chooses Paul Ryan as his running mate. Ryan has a pretty solid 44/39 favorability rating and if he was on the ticket Obama’s lead would decline all the way to 47/46. Ryan’s presence has the effect of further unifying the GOP base around Romney and also helping to bring some more independent voters into the fold.

Scott Walker’s numbers are holding up more than a month after he survived his recall election. 51% of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 46% who disapprove, tracking the results of his contest against Tom Barrett pretty closely. Walker wouldn’t make much of a difference as a potential Romney running mate though- Obama would continue to lead 49-43. Republican support for the Romney/Walker ticket actually drops from when we just ask about Romney, perhaps reflecting a desire among GOP voters for Walker to just stay where he is.

Wisconsin voters are closely divided on the Supreme Court’s decision regarding health care- 46% say they agree with it, while 44% disagree. John Roberts’ favorability is 30/31 and reflecting what we saw in North Carolina and Virginia numbers yesterday he has pretty good marks with Democrats (36/20) and pretty bad ones with Republicans (19/42). One issue that could have the potential to cause Obama some trouble is immigration- just 39% of voters say they agree with the new policy he announced last month while 44% disagree.

“Barack Obama’s the clear favorite to win Wisconsin,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But it looks like it will be a much closer race than his 14 point victory in 2008.”

PPP surveyed 1,057 Wisconsin voters from July 5th to 8th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.3%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q3 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Scott Walker’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 51%
Disapprove………… 46%
Not sure ……………. 3%

Q5 If the Democratic ticket this fall was Barack
Obama for President and Joe Biden for Vice
President, and the Republican ticket was Mitt
Romney for President and Scott Walker for
Vice President, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 49%
Romney-Walker ………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q7 If the Democratic ticket this fall was Barack
Obama for President and Joe Biden for Vice
President, and the Republican ticket was Mitt
Romney for President and Paul Ryan for Vice
President, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 47%
Romney-Ryan…………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%

Q9 Do you agree or disagree with the Supreme
Court’s ruling on the health care reform bill?
Agree …………………………………………………….. 46%
Disagree ………………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q10 Do you support or oppose the new immigration
policy Barack Obama announced two weeks
ago?
Support ………………………………………………….. 39%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q11 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%

Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%

Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%

Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 30%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 38%

Q15 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 90%
Other……………………………………………………… 10%

Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

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