Polls

Obama barely ahead in Florida

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C.–
President Obama’s lead in the sunshine state has shrunk from 4 points over challenger Mitt Romney to 1 point, 48% to 47%, since PPP’s last survey in the state, conducted in June. Romney has benefited from a significant spike in his favorability rating, from -14 to -3, while Obama’s approval rating has turned upside down, reversing from a +3 rating in June to -3. This was PPP’s first survey of the state conducted among likely voters.

Independent voters are responsible for much of the change in these numbers, as many have shifted sides in the last month and a half. While unaffiliated voters favored Obama by 9 points in June, they now favor Romney by 7, at 47% to 40%. This group has softened on Romney, who has experienced some pretty dismal favorability numbers this cycle, and now 42% have a favorable view of Romney compared to 48% who see him unfavorably.

Out of the possible Republican vice presidential candidates PPP tested, only two were able to bring Florida into Mitt Romney’s column. Senator Marco Rubio brings the most to the Republican ticket, and flips the state’s decision to 49% to 47% in favor of Romney. Condoleezza Rice also pulls Romney into the lead, but only by 1 point, 46% to 45%.

All the other potential VPs, the three now considered to be the most likely selections, either hurt the ticket or make no difference. Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, the most popular of these three at an even 29% to 29% favorability, brings Obama’s lead to +3. Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty doesn’t change the margin at all. Ohio Senator and former Bush aid Rob Portman, who brings the lowest net favorables (-9) and the lowest name recognition (45%) to the ticket, improves Obama’s standing to +4.

“Florida looks like it will once again be among the closest states in the country with neither candidate having a clear advantage there,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

PPP surveyed 871 likely Florida voters from July 26th to 29th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.3%.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q3 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Marco Rubio’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .45%
Disapprove…………. .42%
Not sure …………….. .12%

Q5 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Marco Rubio for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 47%
Romney-Rubio………………………………………… 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 4%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bobby Jindal?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%

Q7 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Bobby Jindal for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 47%
Romney-Jindal………………………………………… 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%

Q9 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Tim Pawlenty for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 46%
Romney-Pawlenty……………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rob Portman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 55%

Q11 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Rob Portman for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 46%
Romney-Portman…………………………………….. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%

Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Condoleezza Rice?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 59%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q13 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Condoleezza Rice for Vice
President, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 45%
Romney-Rice ………………………………………….. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q14 Do you think Mitt Romney should release his
tax returns for the last 12 years, or not?
He should……………………………………………….. 53%
He should not………………………………………….. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 20%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%

Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%

Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 40%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 19%

Q18 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 15%
White …………………………………………………….. 69%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 32%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%

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