Polls

Heinrich leads Wilson by five in NM

| Dustin Ingalls

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
In PPP’s first look at New Mexico’s U.S. Senate race after the primaries, frontrunners and now nominees Martin Heinrich and Heather Wilson are running in place.  Heinrich led with 48% over Wilson’s 43% three months ago, and they each have the same share of the vote now.

Despite the overall stability in the toplines, there has been movement across the aisle on both sides.  Heinrich has eaten into Wilson’s Republican base, and Wilson into Heinrich’s Democratic stable.  Where Wilson had the GOP locked up 90-5 in the hypothetical matchup in late April, she now only has a 76-16 lead with her own party’s voters.  But that is still a better grip on her partisans than Heinrich has of his.  Wilson pulls 23% of Democrats, up from 16% in the last poll, bringing Heinrich’s share down from 77% to 69%.  Meanwhile, Heinrich has just slightly upped his lead with independents, from 40-37 to 45-40.

Heinrich has closed the name identification gap quite a bit in the last few months, but the primaries bruised both candidates’ images, particularly Wilson’s.  Now both candidates are in negative territory.  Heinrich was seen narrowly positively in April (34% favorable, 31% unfavorable), but that is now 39-40, an increase of 14 points in recognition but a shift of three points in the wrong direction.  That is better than Wilson’s two points of higher name ID and six points of negative movement.  Where she had a net -5 favorability spread before (40-45), that is now -11 (38-49).

“Our polling on this race has been very consistent,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It’s close but Martin Heinrich has a persistent edge.”

Looking ahead to 2014, Susana Martinez seems to be in pretty good shape if she seeks re-election as governor.  Her net +22 approval margin (56% approve, 34% disapprove) makes her the tenth most popular chief executive on which PPP has polled.  Her only announced opponent starts with a very early 12-point deficit: Attorney General Gary King lags 39-51.  Recent Senate primary loser and State Auditor Hector Balderas is down by one point more (37-50).  Part of Martinez’s popularity is because she gets 31-33% of Democrats, who are a majority of the electorate, thanks to her 39-41% of Hispanic voters.

PPP surveyed 724 New Mexico voters from July 13th to 16th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Martin Heinrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Heather Wilson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q3 The candidates for US Senate this fall are
Democrat Martin Heinrich and Republican
Heather Wilson. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Martin Heinrich………………………………………… 48%
Heather Wilson ……………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Susana Martinez’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 56%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hector Balderas?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 46%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary King?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%

Q7 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Democrat Hector Balderas and Republican
Susana Martinez, who would you vote for?
Hector Balderas ………………………………………. 37%
Susana Martinez……………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q8 If the candidates for Governor in 2014 were
Democrat Gary King and Republican Susana
Martinez, who would you vote for?
Gary King……………………………………………….. 39%
Susana Martinez……………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q9 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 43%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%

Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%

Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 52%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 16%

Q13 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 40%
White …………………………………………………….. 50%
Other……………………………………………………… 10%

Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 17%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 19%

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