Polls

Cruz leads final Texas runoff poll

| Tom Jensen

 

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s final poll of the Republican Senate runoff in Texas finds Ted Cruz opening up a 52-42 lead, an increase from our survey two weeks ago that found him ahead 49-44.

Cruz’s victory is driven by 4 things: the Tea Party, the enthusiasm of his supporters, a generational divide within the Texas Republican ranks, and the lack of regard the party base currently holds for Rick Perry.

Cruz is ahead by a whooping 75-22 margin with Tea Party  voters, more than making up for a 56-39 deficit to Dewhurst with voters who don’t consider themselves members of that movement. There has been too much of a tendency to ascribe any Republican primary upset over the last few years to Tea Party voters, but this is one case where it’s well justified.

Cruz has a 63-33 advantage with voters who describe themselves as ‘very excited’ about voting in Tuesday’s runoff election. He also has a 49-45 advantage with those describing themselves as ‘somewhat excited.’ The only reason this race is even remotely competitive is Dewhurst’s 59-31 lead with voter who say they’re ‘not that excited’ about voting. It’s an open question whether those folks will really show up and if they don’t it’s possible Cruz could end up winning by closer t0 20 points.

The greater excitement among Cruz voters can also be measured by their eagerness to get out and cast their ballots during the early voting period. Cruz leads 55-40 among those who say they’ve already voted, so Dewhurst will likely need a huge advantage among election day voters to overcome the deficit. But Cruz has a 49-44 lead with those who have yet to vote too.

“Runoffs are unpredictable so it would be premature to totally write off David Dewhurst,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But things are definitely trending strongly in Ted Cruz’s direction and he already has a lead on the votes in the bank.”

PPP surveyed 665 likely Republican runoff voters on July 28th and 29th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.8%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 How likely are you to vote in the runoff election
for US Senate? Have you already voted, will
you definitely vote on Tuesday, will you
probably vote on Tuesday, are the chances fifty
-fifty, or will you probably not vote?
Already voted………………………………………….. 49%
Will definitely vote ……………………………………. 51%
Will probably vote ……………………………………. 0%
Chances are 50-50 ………………………………….. 0%
Will probably not vote……………………………….. 0%

Q2 Are you voting in the Republican or Democratic
Senate runoff, or are you not sure?
Republican runoff…………………………………….100%
Democratic runoff ……………………………………. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%

Q3 The Republican candidates for Senate are Ted
Cruz and David Dewhurst. If the runoff was
today, who would you vote for?
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 52%
David Dewhurst ………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ted Cruz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of David Dewhurst?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q6 Would you say you are very excited, somewhat
excited, or not that excited about voting in the
runoff election?
Very excited ……………………………………………. 50%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 29%
Not that excited……………………………………….. 21%

Q7 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%

Q8 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 36%

Q9 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 7%
White …………………………………………………….. 85%
African-American …………………………………….. 2%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%

Q10 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 62%
Are not …………………………………………………… 38%

Q11 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 33%
No …………………………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 48%
Didn’t Answer………………………………………….. 9%

Q13 Are you more or less likely to vote for a
candidate endorsed by Rick Perry, or does it
not make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 16%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 35%
Doesn’t make a difference ………………………… 50%

Q14 Are you more or less likely to vote for a
candidate endorsed by Sarah Palin, or does it
not make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 31%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 24%
Doesn’t make a difference ………………………… 45%

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