Polls

Obama slipping but still up 8 points in Oregon

| Dustin Ingalls

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Raleigh, N.C. –
Like its neighbor to the north, Washington, and other former swing states that were nailbiters in 2000 and 2004, President Obama won Oregon with a dominating 16-point margin over John McCain in 2008.  Now in PPP’s latest poll, that margin has been cut in half.

Unlike in other states, Mitt Romney’s personal popularity has not budged much in Oregon since PPP last polled the state a year ago.  Nor has President Obama’s.  Because of that, the president remains at exactly 50%, but Romney has picked up four points of previously undecided voters.  Where Obama led by 12 points in the early stages of the Republican primary battle, he now leads by only eight.

For Romney, it has been all about shoring up his base and flipping independents.  He lagged by five points with independents in the last poll, and leads by 22 now.  Part of that is an improvement in Romney’s personal image with these votes, but they also have gone from breaking even on Obama’s job performance to disapproving by a 2:1 spread.  At the same time, Romney has moved from 77% to 84% of the GOP, with Obama still taking 11% of them.  Obama has improved a little with his own party, from 83-10 to 86-8.

Obama has gone uphill with women but downhill with men.  Where he led with females by 20 points last June, he tops Romney by 26 now.  Men, on the other hand, now favor Romney by 11, where Obama led with them by six.  Obama does now lead with every age group, even two points with seniors, on top of 32 points with those under 30.

“Barack Obama doesn’t really need to worry about losing Oregon, but it’s clear his standing there is a lot weaker than it was in 2008,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

PPP also polled four other statewide races.  The Democratic candidates lead by 12 to 18 points in the three partisan contests, but 56% are undecided in the officially nonpartisan Labor Commissioner race.  Bruce Starr, a Republican by registration, leads Brad Avakian, the Democratic incumbent, by an inconsequential 23-21 margin.

PPP surveyed 686 Oregon voters from June 21st to 24th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.7%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q3 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%

Q4 The candidates for Secretary of State are
Democrat Kate Brown and Republican Knute
Buehler. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Kate Brown …………………………………………….. 48%
Knute Buehler …………………………………………. 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 21%

Q5 The candidates for State Treasurer are
Democrat Ted Wheeler and Republican Tom
Cox. If the election was today, who would you
vote for?
Ted Wheeler……………………………………………. 46%
Tom Cox ………………………………………………… 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%

Q6 The candidates for Attorney General are
Democrat Ellen Rosenblum and Republican
James Buchal. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Ellen Rosenblum……………………………………… 46%
James Buchal …………………………………………. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%

Q7 The candidates for Labor Commissioner are
Brad Avakian and Bruce Starr. If the election
was today, who would you vote for?
Brad Avakian…………………………………………… 21%
Bruce Starr……………………………………………… 23%
Undecided………………………………………………. 56%

Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 40%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%

Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%

Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%

Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 30%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%

Q12 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%

Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%

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