Polls

Obama leads Romney by 3 in Ohio

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
Barack Obama continues to lead Mitt Romney in the crucial battleground state of Ohio – he leads Romney 47-44, but his lead there has shrunk since the last two polls PPP conducted in the state. PPP found Obama leading Romney by 7 points in polls conducted last May and January.

Obama’s approval rating has slipped somewhat in Ohio, with 44% of voters approving and 51% disapproving of his job performance, down from a 48%-48% tie last month. But Romney continues to suffer from poor favorability ratings, with just 35% of voters viewing him favorably and 54% unfavorably, little change from his 37%-53% rating last month.

Obama seems to have lost a bit of ground with Democrats in Ohio, pulling 83% of their support to Romney’s 13% (down from 88%-7% in May.) Independents are split 42-42 between Obama and Romney, a change from May when Obama led with them 43-40.

None of Ohio’s three major Republican figures would help Romney close the gap much in Ohio. Adding Senator Rob Portman to the ticket would actually expand Obama’s lead by one point to 47-43. Picking Governor John Kasich would result in Romney losing even more ground – the Obama-Biden ticket leads Romney-Kasich 48-42. And if he were to add Speaker John Boehner to the ticket, Romney would trail Obama 49-41. A plurality of Ohioans – 37% – say they’re “not sure” about Senator Portman’s job performance while 32% approve and 31% disapprove. Kasich and Boehner both have net negative approval ratings, with Kasich at 40% approval and 48% disapproval, and Boehner clocking in at 34-46.

“Barack Obama’s still ahead in Ohio, but this is the smallest lead he’s had in the state since last October,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He’s lost a fair amount of ground with white Democrats in the last couple months.”

PPP surveyed 673 Ohio voters from June 21st to June 24th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.8%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q3 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Rob
Portman’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .32%
Disapprove…………. .31%
Not sure …………….. .37%

Q5 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Rob Portman for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 47%
Romney-Portman…………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Kasich’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q7 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and John Kasich for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 48%
Romney-Kasich ………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of House
Speaker John Boehner’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 34%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q9 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and John Boehner for Vice
President, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 49%
Romney-Boehner…………………………………….. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 42%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 10%

Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%

Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 24%

Q14 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%

Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

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