Polls

Romney pulls ahead in Arizona

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney has taken a moderately comfortable lead in Arizona, a state in which Republicans have found success in recent elections.

Romney leads Obama in a head-to-head matchup 50-43. That’s a big improvement for Romney from the last statewide general election poll in late February, when Romney was tied with Obama at 47.

Now that Romney has emerged as the man with the best chance to unseat the president, Republicans and Independents alike are starting to rally around him. Romney’s favorability rating has improved 11 points from February to 46%, and he now leads with Independents against Obama 48-38. Obama led with Independents 53-39 in February.

Romney’s turnaround is also due in part to Obama’s worsening image among Arizona voters. Obama has a 41% approval rating in the state, down 5 points from February.  The turnaround isn’t too surprising, considering Romney held a similar 7-point lead over Obama in a November statewide general election poll. Obama’s approval rating was also 41% in November, signaling that Obama’s numbers in February could have been inflated due to Arizona’s hostile Republican primary that took place less than a week after the poll was conducted.

Adding a prominent Arizona Republican as vice-presidential nominee doesn’t help Romney. Gov. Brewer has a 47% approval rating among Arizonans; adding her to the Romney ticket would reduce Romney’s lead by 4 points to 48-44. Only 36% of Arizonans approve of five-term Senator John McCain’s job performance. Adding him to the Romney ticket would decrease Romney’s lead by 5 points to 48-43.

“Barack Obama’s chances of winning Arizona don’t look as good as they did 3 months ago,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Conservatives have consolidated some around Mitt Romney since he wrapped up the Republican nomination.”

PPP surveyed 500 Arizona voters from May 17th  to 20th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q3 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 50%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Jan
Brewer’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .47%
Disapprove…………. .45%
Not sure …………….. . 7%

Q5 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Jan Brewer for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 44%
Romney-Brewer………………………………………. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%

Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator John
McCain’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .36%
Disapprove…………. .54%
Not sure …………….. .10%

Q7 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and John McCain for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 43%
Romney-McCain ……………………………………… 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Arpaio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q9 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Joe Arpaio for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 44%
Romney-Arpaio……………………………………….. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 80%

Q11 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, who
would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 9%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%

Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 48%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 10%

Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 24%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%

Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%

Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 31%
Republican……………………………………………… 46%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 23%

Q16 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 18%
White …………………………………………………….. 71%
Other……………………………………………………… 11%

Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

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