Polls

Obama still tops Romney by seven in Ohio

| Dustin Ingalls

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
When PPP last polled Ohio a little over four months ago, Mitt Romney trailed President Obama by seven points.  He has not made up any ground since, and the apparent establishment choice for his running mate, the state’s freshman Sen. Rob Portman, would not help him to catch up much.

Obama tops Romney, 50-43, essentially the same as his 49-42 lead in late January.  This is despite the president’s approval rating not budging at all—48% both approved and disapproved in each poll—and despite Romney getting a little more personally popular, though still less so than the president, as Republicans come around to him.  37% see him favorably and 53% unfavorably, up from 28-56 in the previous poll.

Obama has maintained his lead because he is shoring up his own base, moving from 84% to 88% of the Democratic vote, while Romney has shifted from 80% to 82% of the GOP.  Obama also has a similar lead with independents—43-40 now, versus 45-40.

Portman remains one of the most anonymous senators in the country.  A 36% plurality has no opinion about him, with 31% approving and 33% disapproving of his work in D.C.  If he were on the ticket with Romney, the pair would move up to 44% and bring Obama down to 49% because he would help Romney a little with Republicans but not at all with Democrats or independents.

At least Portman can claim to be of more service than two of Ohio’s other prominent figures, though neither is mentioned as potential running mates.  Gov. John Kasich, whose approval rating is up a bit from 33-53 to 38-49, and Speaker John Boehner (34-50 approval statewide) would allow Romney to tread water at a seven-point deficit.

“Barack Obama’s led by 7 points or more now on our last three Ohio polls,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It seems unlikely he’ll win the state by that much in November but it does mean he has some margin for error.”

PPP surveyed 875 Ohio voters from May 3rd to 6th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.3%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q4 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%

Q5 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%

Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Rob
Portman’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .31%
Disapprove…………. .33%
Not sure …………….. .36%

Q7 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Rob Portman for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 49%
Romney-Portman…………………………………….. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%

Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Kasich’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q9 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and John Kasich for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 50%
Romney-Kasich ………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%

Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of House
Speaker John Boehner’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 34%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q11 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and John Boehner for Vice
President, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 49%
Romney-Boehner…………………………………….. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 42%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 10%

Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%

Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%

Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%

Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 85%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 13%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 21%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%

Related Polls