Obama leads in Virginia

Barack Obama continues to look like the favorite to win Virginia this fall. He has a 51-43 lead over Mitt Romney in the state. We have consistently found Obama leading in Virginia by margins similar to his 6 point victory there in 2008- he led Romney by 6 in December, 4 in July, 11 in May (right after the killing of Osama bin Laden), and 6 last March.

Adding Bob McDonnell to the ticket wouldn't do much to help Romney's prospects in Virginia. The spread remains exactly the same at 51/43 with him in the mix. McDonnell has solid approval numbers with a 46/36 spread, but isn't overwhelmingly popular.

McDonnell at least wouldn't hurt Romney- the same can't be said of Eric Cantor. If he was on the ticket Obama's lead expands to 12 points at 52/40. Cantor is an unpopular figure in the state with only 27% of voters seeing him positively to 41% with a negative opinion.

Another interesting angle in Virginia is the candidacy of former Congressman Virgil Goode as the Constitution Party candidate for President. We find him polling at 5% in a three way contest with Obama's lead over Romney expanding to 12 points at 50-38. It seems unlikely Goode would ultimately get 5% but anything he gets could help flip the state to Obama given how small Romney's margin for error there is. Goode gets 10% from those describing themselves as 'very conservative,' suggesting that Romney does still have some work to do with the far right.

Obama's approval rating in Virginia is 50% with 46% of voters disapproving of him. This marks just the 3rd time in our polling of the state since he took office that Obama's hit 50% on that front. Meanwhile Romney continues to be pretty unpopular with only 38% of voters rating him favorably while 52% hold a negative opinion.

It does seem likely that Romney will close some of the gap. Obama is already winning 92% of the Democratic vote, while Romney's at only 84% of the Republican vote. I would expect those numbers to come closer to parity by November but either way Obama still looks like the favorite in the state.

Obama's winning 57-33 with voters under 30, which is not unusual. But he's also up 56-37 with voters between 30 and 45 which suggests the GOP has a problem in Virginia not just with the very young but also with the somewhat young. That generational gap speaks to the days of Virginia as a solid red state in Presidential elections probably being over. 

For what it's worth Obama leads Ron Paul 50-39 and Newt Gingrich 53-37.

Full results here

Comments

[Obama 2012]

This is awesome. I just don't see the GOP winning without Virginia. It's possible but extremely unlikely.

[Kevin]

I have a question. According to the CNN exit polls, the 2008 Virginia electorate represented 39 democrats and 33 percent republicans. A plus 6 spread.

The 2008 election was a year of historical turnout for Democrats, one that has not been matched since and the 2009-2010-2011 elections have largely proven.

This poll shows a Democratic spread of 39 percent to 32 percent GOP, a +7.

Is it really realistic to assume the spread in 2012 will beat the 2008 spread? Doesn't seem to make much sense.

[Darryl Holland]

I'm predicting Virgil Goode polls in double digits in Virginia as Conservative Democrats [there are a few] and disgruntled GOP'ers flock to the obvious alternative.... Darryl Holland -- Henry County