Barack Obama continues to look like the favorite to win Virginia this fall. He has a 51-43 lead over Mitt Romney in the state. We have consistently found Obama leading in Virginia by margins similar to his 6 point victory there in 2008- he led Romney by 6 in December, 4 in July, 11 in May (right after the killing of Osama bin Laden), and 6 last March.
Adding Bob McDonnell to the ticket wouldn't do much to help Romney's prospects in Virginia. The spread remains exactly the same at 51/43 with him in the mix. McDonnell has solid approval numbers with a 46/36 spread, but isn't overwhelmingly popular.
McDonnell at least wouldn't hurt Romney- the same can't be said of Eric Cantor. If he was on the ticket Obama's lead expands to 12 points at 52/40. Cantor is an unpopular figure in the state with only 27% of voters seeing him positively to 41% with a negative opinion.
Another interesting angle in Virginia is the candidacy of former Congressman Virgil Goode as the Constitution Party candidate for President. We find him polling at 5% in a three way contest with Obama's lead over Romney expanding to 12 points at 50-38. It seems unlikely Goode would ultimately get 5% but anything he gets could help flip the state to Obama given how small Romney's margin for error there is. Goode gets 10% from those describing themselves as 'very conservative,' suggesting that Romney does still have some work to do with the far right.
It does seem likely that Romney will close some of the gap. Obama is already winning 92% of the Democratic vote, while Romney's at only 84% of the Republican vote. I would expect those numbers to come closer to parity by November but either way Obama still looks like the favorite in the state.
Obama's winning 57-33 with voters under 30, which is not unusual. But he's also up 56-37 with voters between 30 and 45 which suggests the GOP has a problem in Virginia not just with the very young but also with the somewhat young. That generational gap speaks to the days of Virginia as a solid red state in Presidential elections probably being over.
For what it's worth Obama leads Ron Paul 50-39 and Newt Gingrich 53-37.
Full results here