Iowa Miscellany

-As we're finding in our polling across the country right now voters in Iowa are moving more and more in support of gay marriage to the point where they're now almost evenly divided on the issue. 44% of voters think it should be legal, while 45% believe it should be illegal. That represents a six point shift on the margin from when we polled the state in October and found 41% of voters supportive and 48% opposed.

Gay marriage has been legal for a few years in Iowa now and 62% of voters say that it's had no impact on their lives one way or the other. 24% claim it's had a negative effect while 14% say it's a positive thing. We've never found a very significant portion of voters in a state that has gay marriage say it's had a bad effect on them.

71% of voters support either gay marriage or civil unions with only 27% opposed to any sort of legal recognition for same sex couples. Even Republicans support some kind of legal recognition by a 52/45 margin.

-2014 is a long way off but for now it looks like the race for Governor could be a dog fight. Voters in the state are evenly divided on Terry Branstad's job performance with 43% approving and an equal 43% disapproving of him. Branstad would find himself with small lead over 2010 opponent Chet Culver (44-42) or Congressman Bruce Braley (44-40). In a clash of the titans between Branstad and his original successor, Tom Vilsack, the Democrat would have the edge by a 46-43 margin. Vilsack has a 45/35 favorability rating six years after leaving office.

-Tom Harkin's in a little better shape than Branstad if he decides to run again. He would have a 9 point lead over Congressman Tom Latham (46-37) and an 11 point advantage over Congressman Steve King (48-37). Latham is unknown to a majority of voters in the state while King is unpopular, sporting a 25/38 favorability rating. If Branstad tried to trade up from Governor to the Senate, he would trail Harkin 46-41. That said Harkin's approval numbers are not phenomenal (45/39) and it seems like Republicans ought to at least be able to put a better fight up against him than they did in 2008.

-Charles Grassley is Iowa's most popular politician with a 50/33 approval rating.

-Democrats lead the generic state legislative ballot 44-39, suggesting they should pick up seats this fall.

Full results here

Comments

[Gerald]

Please ask the question about SSM having an impact on the respondents' own life BEFORE you ask about their general position on SSM. If a respondent first indicates that he is opposed to (or supports) SSM, he feel pressured to conform his response on the "personal impact" question.

Ask the personal impact question first and then ask about their approval or disapproval of SSM. Do it this way and I doubt you will get 38% saying that it had a personal impact. More likely, you would get 90+% saying no impact, which is what the Des Moines Register found in 2010.