Polls

Dewhurst leads Cruz by 17 in Texas Senate race

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
David Dewhurst leads Ted Cruz 46-29 in the Texas Republican Senate primary and the main question on Tuesday will be whether he can sneak over 50% and avoid a runoff. Tom Leppert’s in third at 15% with Craig James at 3% and 2% of voters preferring someone else. 5% remain undecided and if Dewhurst can pick up enough of those folks it might get him over the finish line.

Dewhurst’s 17 point lead represents a reversal of the direction the race had been heading in. Dewhurst started out with a 29 point lead in our polling last September but by January that had declined to 18 points and on our last poll, a month ago, it was down to 12. But Cruz has only gained 3 points over the last four weeks, while Dewhurst has seen an 8 point bump in his support.

Even if Dewhurst does get stopped short of 50%, his prospects in a runoff election look pretty promising. He would lead Cruz 59-34 in a head to head, mostly because Leppert voters prefer Dewhurst over Cruz by a 77-13 margin.

Dewhurst’s prospects look good whether his victory comes on Tuesday or later. But there is one finding in the poll that suggests some possibility for things to be closer than expected. 49% of Cruz’s voters are ‘very excited’ about casting their ballots on Tuesday, while only 27% of Dewhurst’s are.

With voters who are ‘very excited’ about turning out, Cruz actually has a 42-37 advantage. That pro-Cruz enthusiasm gap won’t be enough to put him in first place on Tuesday but if he does force a runoff it could give him a fighting chance in a low turnout election further down the line.

“David Dewhurst has shored up his standing as the Republican front runner over the last month,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He’s at about even odds to win without a runoff and even if he doesn’t get to 50% on Tuesday he’ll be a very strong favorite in a head to head with Ted Cruz.”

PPP surveyed 482 likely Republican primary voters on May 22nd and 23rd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Democratic or
Republican primary election next week, or do
you not plan to vote in a primary?
Democratic primary………………………………….. 0%
Republican primary………………………………….100%
Not sure/Don’t plan to vote in a primary………. 0%

Q2 The major Republican candidates for Senate
are Ted Cruz, David Dewhurst, Craig James,
and Tom Leppert. If the election was today,
who would you vote for?
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 29%
David Dewhurst ………………………………………. 46%
Craig James……………………………………………. 3%
Tom Leppert……………………………………………. 15%
One of the other candidates………………………. 2%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%

Q3 If there was a runoff election for Senate
between Ted Cruz and David Dewhurst, who
would you vote for?
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 34%
David Dewhurst ………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q4 If there was a runoff election for Senate
between Tom Leppert and David Dewhurst,
who would you vote for?
Tom Leppert……………………………………………. 31%
David Dewhurst ………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q5 Would you say you are very excited, somewhat
excited, or not that excited about voting in the
primary election?
Very excited ……………………………………………. 34%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 37%
Not that excited……………………………………….. 29%

Q6 Are you a fan of Baylor, Houston, Southern
Methodist, Texas, Texas A&M, TCU, Texas
Tech, UTEP, or another school?
Baylor………………… . 9%
Houston …………….. . 3%
Southern Methodist . 2%
Texas ………………… .19%
Texas A & M……….. .20%
TCU ………………….. . 3%
Texas Tech…………. . 9%
UTEP………………… . 1%
Another school/Not
a fan……………………33%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ted Cruz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of David Dewhurst?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 61%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Craig James?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Leppert?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%

Q11 Are you more or less likely to vote for a
candidate endorsed by Rick Perry, or does it
not make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 24%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 28%
Doesn’t make a difference ………………………… 49%

Q12 Are you more or less likely to vote for a
candidate endorsed by Sarah Palin, or does it
not make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 36%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 21%
Doesn’t make a difference ………………………… 43%

Q13 If the Republican candidates for Senate were
Craig James and Mike Leach, who would you
vote for?
Craig James……………………………………………. 29%
Mike Leach …………………………………………….. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 57%

Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%

Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%

Q16 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 34%

Q17 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 6%
White …………………………………………………….. 85%
African-American …………………………………….. 2%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%

Q18 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 61%
Are not …………………………………………………… 39%

Q19 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 41%
No …………………………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q20 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 1%
Moderate………………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 28%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 55%
Didn’t Answer………………………………………….. 8%

Related Polls