Polls

Nelson leads Republican field by double digits

| Tom Jensen

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Raleigh, N.C. –
Democrat Bill Nelson leads all 3 of his potential Republican challengers by between 10 and 14 points, a new survey of Florida voters from Public Policy Polling finds. Nelson leads Republican frontrunner Connie Mack IV 47-37, he leads Mike McCalister 47-35, and he leads George LeMieux 48-34. The state of the race is largely unchanged from the last time PPP polled the contest in November 2011, when Nelson led Mack 46-35, led McCalister 47-32, and led LeMieux 48-34.

The Republican field still suffers from low name recognition and favorability numbers. Connie Mack IV is viewed favorably by 20% of voters, with 27% viewing him unfavorably and 53% not sure. LeMieux is at 10% favorable, 25% unfavorable and 65% not sure while McCalister is at 6% favorable, 17% unfavorable and a whopping 77% not sure. More problematic for LeMieux and McCalister is their net unfavorable rating among Republican voters. LeMieux is at 14-18 among Republican voters and McCalister is at 8-14. Only Connie Mack IV is viewed favorably by Republican voters at 30-18.

“The race is essentially unchanged from last fall, with Republicans still introducing themselves to voters and Bill Nelson leading the field comfortably,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

Bill Nelson’s job approval rating is at 36% approval, 32% disapproval and 33% unknown, an unusually low profile for a sitting two-term Senator. Nelson commands the approval of only 55% of Democratic voters, with 13% disapproving and 31% not sure. Among Republicans he’s at 15% favorable and 50% unfavorable with 35% not sure. And with independent voters he’s at 37% favorable, 34% unfavorable and 29% not sure. Democrats fall in line in the head to head matchups though, with over 80% supporting Nelson against all 3 Democratic challengers.  Republicans don’t yet enjoy such party unity, with LeMieux pulling 67% of Republican voters against Nelson, and Nelson and McCalister getting 70% of Republican support against Nelson.

PPP surveyed 700 Florida voters from April 12th to 15th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.7%.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bill
Nelson’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .36%
Disapprove…………. .32%
Not sure …………….. .33%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George LeMieux?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Connie Mack IV?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 53%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike McCalister?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 77%

Q5 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican George
LeMieux, who would you vote for?
Bill Nelson………………………………………………. 48%
George LeMieux ……………………………………… 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%

Q6 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Connie
Mack IV, who would you vote for?
Bill Nelson………………………………………………. 47%
Connie Mack IV ………………………………………. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%

Q7 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Mike
McCalister, who would you vote for?
Bill Nelson………………………………………………. 47%
Mike McCalister ………………………………………. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%

Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 47%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%

Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%

Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%

Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 41%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%

Q12 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 13%
White …………………………………………………….. 71%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 31%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 33%

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