Momentum shifts against NC marriage amendment

Raleigh, N.C. – Momentum is turning against North Carolina's proposed marriage amendment.  PPP's newest poll finds only 54% of voters in the state planning to support it, while 40% are opposed. This is the lowest level of support PPP has found in monthly polling of the amendment since last October. When PPP first polled on it six months ago 61% supported it with only 34% opposed, so its current 14 point lead has been cut almost in half from the 27 point advantage it started out with.

There is some reason to think a huge upset in two weeks is within the realm of possibility. 53% of voters in the state support either gay marriage or civil unions, with only 44% opposed to any recognition for same sex couples. The proposed amendment would ban both gay marriage and civil unions, but voters continue to be confused about that. Just 36% correctly identify that it would ban both while 26% think it bans only gay marriage, 10% think it actually legalizes gay marriage, and 27% admit that they don't know what it does.

When voters are informed that the proposed amendment would preclude both marriage and civil unions for gay couples only 38% continue to support it with 46% in opposition. Voters obviously will be more tuned into the amendment debate over the final two weeks of the campaign than they have been to date, particularly as the against side's tv ads hit the air, and it seems quite possible that as voters become more and more informed about the amendment they will continue to move more and more against it.

The main movement over the last month has been with Democratic voters. Previously they were almost evenly divided on the amendment but now they're moving against it with only 38% still in support and 56% opposed. A big part of that is a shift among black voters. They still support it by a 51/39 margin, but that's well down from 61/30 on our a poll a month ago.

“Passage of the marriage amendment is looking like less and less of a sure thing,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The more voters learn about it the less inclined they are to support it.”

PPP surveyed 1,139 likely primary voters from April 20^th to 22nd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.9%.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you think you will vote in the Democratic or
Republican primary election next month, or will
you not vote in a primary?
Democratic primary......................................... 51%
Republican primary......................................... 40%
Not sure .......................................................... 8%

Q2 Would you vote for or against a constitutional
amendment to provide that marriage between
one man and one woman is the only domestic
legal union that shall be valid or recognized in
this State?
Would vote for it.............................................. 54%
Would vote against it ...................................... 40%
Not sure .......................................................... 6%

Q3 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple's relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ..............................................................28%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry .......................................25%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple's relationship .......................................44%
Not sure .......................................................... 3%

Q4 Do you think that a 'yes' vote on Amendment
One bans just gay marriage, bans both gay
marriage and civil unions, legalizes gay
marriage, or are you not sure?
Bans just gay marriage ................................... 26%
Bans both gay marriage and civil unions ........ 36%
Legalizes gay marriage................................... 10%
Not sure .......................................................... 27%

Q5 If you knew that Amendment One banned both
gay marriage and civil unions, would you vote
'yes' or 'no'?
Would vote 'yes'.............................................. 38%
Would vote 'no' ............................................... 46%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%

Q6 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain................................................... 44%
Barack Obama................................................ 47%
Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 9%

Q7 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 12%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 15%
Moderate......................................................... 24%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 23%
Very conservative ........................................... 26%

Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 54%
Man................................................................. 46%

Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 49%
Republican...................................................... 36%
Independent/Other.......................................... 15%

Q10 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White .............................................................. 78%
African-American ............................................ 17%
Other............................................................... 5%

Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 12%
30 to 45........................................................... 22%
46 to 65........................................................... 36%
Older than 65.................................................. 30%

Comments

[gaylib]

Are you aware that the News and Observer is incorrectly reporting the results of your poll???

"The Public Policy Polling survey released Tuesday shows 54 percent of primary voters support making marriage between one man and one woman the only legal union recognized in North Carolina – down four percentage points from a month ago.

Black voters favor the amendment 59 to 31 percent, and even Democratic primary voters are split evenly. The referendum needs a majority for approval."

Read more here: http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/04/25/2022847/latest-poll-shows-gap-narrowing.html#dsq-content#disqus_thread#storylink=cpy

[William Millsaps]

Here's all I have to say on this subject...
Let all people marry whomever they want.
God (If you are a believer) is the only judge, and does all the punishing, he actually told us not to do those things. Do not assume that you can do Gods job; he does not need your help!
If you are not a believer; stop trying to force your morality, or values on others through the law, or politics; you just can't do it! People will do as they please anyway!
Homosexuality is not a disease, it is not contagious! Homosexuals will not try to "convert" you or your children!
I know I'll probably lose friends, get hate mail, or at the worse get attacked for my opinion, but it's mine and as of the last tine I checked, I have the right to express it. And finally, the recognition of Homosexual marriage is inevitiable! If we don't recognize it, our kids, or grandkids will...so why make people suffer needlessly for another generation or two...let people choose their own lifestyle ( they are gonna do it anyway) and try loving all people and letting them be free to persue Life, Liberty, and Happiness! Not to do so is foolish, and cruel, lighten up...life will still be the same for us, and better for them, I can see no harm in that. Thank You for your time.

[Richard D. Williams]

An editorial by the GM of WECT-TV6, Wilmington, NC today indicated that the implications of the amendment are unclear. What is clear is that the state will spend millions in legal costs in the years ahead for the courts to untangle the mess it will cause if approved.

In my opinion, no constitutional amendment should ever deny or limit rights and liberties. Furthermore, the government should not be the bully that enforces church dogma. Popes, bishops, rabbis, priests and pastors, etc. can't get their message across to the people from the pulpit but they will be able to call upon the unholy, dreaded government to act as the "temple police" if this scheme passes.