Polls

Romney up big in Illinois primary

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
Mitt Romney is headed for a blowout victory in Illinois on Tuesday. He leads with 45% to 30% for Rick Santorum, 12% for Newt Gingrich, and 10% for Ron Paul.

Romney’s particularly strong among voters who live in suburban areas (50-29) and with those who live in urban areas (46-23). But he’s even running slightly ahead of Santorum, 38-36, with folks who identify as living in rural parts and that strength with a group of voters he hasn’t tended to do that well with is why he’s looking at such a lopsided margin of victory.

Romney tends to win moderates in most states and Santorum usually win voters describing themselves as ‘very conservative.’ The swing group in the Republican electorate is those identifying as just ‘somewhat conservative.’ Romney is winning those folks by a whooping 60-20 margin in Illinois. Romney’s also benefiting from a 52-28 advantage with seniors.

We’ve tended to find Santorum a lot more popular with voters even in states that Romney has won over the last six weeks, but that’s not the case in Illinois. Romney’s favorability is 57/34, about par for the course of where we’ve found him this year. Santorum’s at only 55/36, much worse numbers than we’ve seen for him most places in the last couple months, and suggesting that GOP voters are starting to sour on him a little bit.

Santorum’s winning the group he tends to do well with- Tea Partiers, Evangelicals, and those describing themselves as ‘very conservative.’ But he’s not winning them by the kinds of wide margins he would need to take an overall victory- he’s up only 8 with Tea Party voters and 10 with Evangelicals, groups he needs to win by more like 25 points with to hope to win in a northern state. Santorum can’t blame Gingrich for his troubles in Illinois either. If Newt was out Romney would still have an 11 point advantage on Santorum, 45-34.

PPP surveyed 506 likely Republican primary voters on March 17th and 18th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.4%.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary
or the Democratic primary, or are you not sure?
Republican primary………………………………….100%
Democratic primary………………………………….. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%

Q2 Have you already cast your ballot for President,
or do you plan to vote on election day?
Already voted………………………………………….. 9%
Plan to vote on election day………………………. 91%

Q3 (Early voters:) Did you vote for Newt Gingrich,
Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 8%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 13%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 48%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 30%

Q4 (Election day/not sure voters:) The Republican
candidates for President are Newt Gingrich,
Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 13%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 10%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 30%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 2%

Q5 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 72%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 28%

Q6 (Combined Horse Race, Q3 and Q4)
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 12%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 10%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 30%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 2%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q11 If the Republican candidates were just Ron
Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who
would you vote for?
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 14%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q12 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 10%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 86%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%

Q14 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%

Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 39%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 35%

Q16 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 25%
No …………………………………………………………. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q17 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 36%
Are not …………………………………………………… 64%

Q18 Do you live in an urban, suburban, or rural
area?
Urban…………………………………………………….. 20%
Suburban ……………………………………………….. 48%
Rural ……………………………………………………… 31%

Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If an independent, press
3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 4%
Republican……………………………………………… 79%
Independent……………………………………………. 17%

Q20 Which best describes when you decided who
to vote for: in the last few days, the last week,
the last month, or earlier than that?
In the last few days ………………………………….. 8%
In the last week……………………………………….. 8%
In the last month ……………………………………… 30%
Earlier than that ………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q21 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the city of Chicago?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 65%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q22 Are you a Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox,
or St. Louis Cardinals fan?
Cubs ……………………………………………………… 37%
White Sox ………………………………………………. 20%
Cardinals………………………………………………… 22%
Not a fan of any of these teams …………………. 21%

Q23 Do you think Barack Obama is a Christian or a
Muslim, or are you not sure?
Christian…………………………………………………. 24%
Muslim …………………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%

Q24 Do you think Barack Obama was born in the
United States, or not?
He was…………………………………………………… 36%
He was not……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%

Q25 Do you believe in evolution, or not?
Believe in evolution………………………………….. 41%
Do not ……………………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q26 Do you think that interracial marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal……………………………………………………… 75%
Illegal …………………………………………………….. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

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