Romney up big in Illinois

Mitt Romney is headed for a blowout victory in Illinois on Tuesday. He leads with 45% to 30% for Rick Santorum, 12% for Newt Gingrich, and 10% for Ron Paul.

Romney's particularly strong among voters who live in suburban areas (50-29) and with those who live in urban areas (46-23). But he's even running slightly ahead of Santorum, 38-36, with folks who identify as living in rural parts and that strength with a group of voters he hasn't tended to do that well with is why he's looking at such a lopsided margin of victory.

Romney tends to win moderates in most states and Santorum usually win voters describing themselves as 'very conservative.' The swing group in the Republican electorate is those identifying as just 'somewhat conservative.' Romney is winning those folks by a whooping 60-20 margin in Illinois. Romney's also benefiting from a 52-28 advantage with seniors.

We've tended to find Santorum a lot more popular with voters even in states that Romney has won over the last six weeks, but that's not the case in Illinois. Romney's favorability is 57/34, about par for the course of where we've found him this year. Santorum's at only 55/36, much worse numbers than we've seen for him most places in the last couple months, and suggesting that GOP voters are starting to sour on him a little bit.

Santorum's winning the group he tends to do well with- Tea Partiers, Evangelicals, and those describing themselves as 'very conservative.' But he's not winning them by the kinds of wide margins he would need to take an overall victory- he's up only 8 with Tea Party voters and 10 with Evangelicals, groups he needs to win by more like 25 points with to hope to win in a northern state. Santorum can't blame Gingrich for his troubles in Illinois either. If Newt was out Romney would still have an 11 point advantage on Santorum, 45-34.

Full results here

Comments

[Bill Mitchell]

Looks like the wheels are coming off for Santorum as they should be. Nice guy with zero Executive experience or gravitas. Also his whining irritates me.

If Intrade is an indicator at this point, then this is over and we can start to concentrate on Obama. Good. There is so much to go after Obama on we'll need more than a few months to get it all in.

[Winghunter]

Dr. Thomas Sowell, the wisest and most trusted author in the country:

Republicans Voter’s Choices http://bit.ly/sYlZLY

The Past And The Present http://bit.ly/u7IUJP

[Mike]

Wow. My family and I were going to go out and vote for Santorum just to screw with the Republicans but considering the blow-out Romney is expected to have, we'll probably vote in the local Democratic primary. I admit, I had hoped it was going to be tighter than this.

[Johnnyappleseed]

Romney is still a good choice for my money, anyone who could bail out the 2002 corrupt plauged SLC Olympics, and 4make it the only Olympiad ever to make money is good enough for this conservative.

[al]

This is good news. I think the public is getting the Idea that Newt is just crazy and doesnt really care how his actions can effect the race. He should step down like the others did when they realize they couldnt Win. Santorum,not prepaired financially voted 5 times for deficit increases oh yeah real conservative.