Polls

Romney leads in Washington

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
Momentum has swung strongly in Mitt Romney’s direction among Washington Republicans over the last two weeks. He now leads in the state with 37% to 32% for Rick Santorum, 16% for Ron Paul, and 13% for Newt Gingrich. That represents a reversal from PPP’s previous poll which found Santorum in the driver’s seat with 38% to Romney’s 27%. The large shift in Washington reflects what has happened in the race nationally over that period of time.

Two weeks ago Santorum’s net favorability was 46 points better than Romney’s in Washington.  Now it’s only 11 points better. Santorum’s popularity has declined, going from +51 (69/18) to just +29 (60/31). Meanwhile Romney is on the up swing, going from only +5 (47/42) to +18 (55/37).

If Romney does end up winning Saturday night it will be a large Mormon vote that puts him over the top. We find that 14% of likely caucus goers are Mormons and 64% of them support Romney to 15% for Paul and 13% for Santorum.  Romney actually trails Santorum 35-32 with non-Mormons.

In the places he’s been successful Santorum has dominated the race with three core groups: Evangelicals, Tea Partiers, and those describing themselves as ‘very conservative.’ He’s winning all those groups in Washington, but not by nearly the margin he needs to. He’s only up 41-30 with Evangelicals, 41-34 with Tea Party identifiers, and 38-35 with those self labeling as ‘very conservative.’

Among voters who say they will ‘definitely’ caucus on Saturday Romney’s advantage is only 35-32. His overall advantage is larger because he’s up 40-30 with those who will ‘probably’ caucus, but those folks may or may not end up showing.

“Mitt Romney has the momentum in Washington right now just as he does nationally,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The big question in a low turnout caucus is whether his supporters are passionate enough to show up. If Santorum’s supporters care more they could still put him over the top.”

PPP surveyed 447 likely Republican caucus voters on February 29th and March 1st. The margin of error is +/-4.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican caucus
or the Democratic caucus, or are you not sure?
Republican caucus…………………………………..100%
Democratic caucus ………………………………….. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%

Q2 Would you say you that you will definitely
participate or probably participate in Saturday’s
Republican caucus?
Will definitely participate …………………………… 69%
Will probably participate……………………………. 31%

Q3 The Republican candidates for President are
Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and
Rick Santorum. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 13%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 16%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 37%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 32%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 2%

Q4 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 73%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 27%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 60%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%

Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older
than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%

Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 5%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 36%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 40%

Q12 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 32%
No …………………………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q13 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 43%
Are not …………………………………………………… 57%

Q14 Are you a Mormon, or not?
Are a Mormon …………………………………………. 14%
Are not …………………………………………………… 86%

Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or a member of another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 4%
Republican……………………………………………… 79%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 16%

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