Polls

McCrory tops Etheridge, Dalton by ten to eleven points

| Dustin Ingalls

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
Since PPP last polled the North Carolina gubernatorial contest a little over a month ago, voters have moved a little toward the GOP in their generic preferences, but both Bob Etheridge and Walter Dalton, the two frontrunners for the Democratic nomination, have made up ground head-to-head with presumed Republican nominee Pat McCrory.  Still, McCrory remains the favorite, with double-digit leads over any Democrat.

In the January survey, North Carolinians preferred a Democrat to be the next governor by a 46-45 margin over an unnamed Republican, but that is now 46-42 in the GOP’s favor.  Despite that five-point switch, Etheridge and Dalton have each made up four or five points of ground on McCrory.  They trailed by identical 50-35 margins previously, but McCrory now leads Etheridge only 46-36 and Dalton 46-35.

The problem for the Democrats is that McCrory continues to get a very healthy proportion of crossover support—17% versus Etheridge and 18% against Dalton.  He also wins by 23 or 25 points with the roughly fifth of voters who identify with neither major party.  That compares to 14% of Democrats preferring a Republican generally and an 18-point preference for the GOP among independents.  The good news for the Democrats is about twice as many of their voters are undecided as Republicans, and Democrats make up roughly 45% of the electorate.

Dalton and Etheridge remain far less known statewide than the 2008 GOP nominee for this office.  64% have an opinion about McCrory personally, but only 40% of former Congressman Etheridge and 32% of Dalton, despite his serving statewide currently as Lieutenant Governor. 

“Pat McCrory remains the favorite in the Governor’s race, but Walter Dalton and Bob Etheridge have gained a little ground with the official launch of their campaigns,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

PPP surveyed 804 North Carolina voters from March 8th to 11th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.5%.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 In general, would you like the next Governor of
North Carolina to be a Democrat or a
Republican?
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bruce Blackmon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 3%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 87%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Walter Dalton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bob Etheridge?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 60%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gardenia Henley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 3%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 84%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat McCrory?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%

Q7 If the candidates for Governor were Democrat
Bruce Blackmon and Republican Pat McCrory,
who would you vote for?
Bruce Blackmon………………………………………. 33%
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%

Q8 If the candidates for Governor were Democrat
Walter Dalton and Republican Pat McCrory,
who would you vote for?
Walter Dalton ………………………………………….. 35%
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%

Q9 If the candidates for Governor were Democrat
Bob Etheridge and Republican Pat McCrory,
who would you vote for?
Bob Etheridge …………………………………………. 36%
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%

Q10 If the candidates for Governor were Democrat
Gardenia Henley and Republican Pat McCrory,
who would you vote for?
Gardenia Henley……………………………………… 29%
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%

Q11 Do you think the candidates for Governor
should release their tax returns, or not?
They should ……………………………………………. 71%
They should not ………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%

Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%

Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%

Q15 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 75%
African-American …………………………………….. 21%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%

Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

Q17
252………………………………………………………… 9%
336………………………………………………………… 19%
704………………………………………………………… 22%
828………………………………………………………… 14%
910………………………………………………………… 15%
919………………………………………………………… 20%

Related Polls