Romney leads Obama

For the first time in PPP's monthly national polling since July 2010 Mitt Romney's taken a lead, albeit a small one, over Barack Obama.  He's up 47-45.

Romney has two main things going for him.  He leads the President 45-36 with independents. And he's also benefiting from a much more unified party with 88% of Republicans committed to voting for him while only 83% of Democrats say they'll vote for Obama.

Our national survey confirms the wide electability gap between Romney and the rest of the Republican candidate field. Obama leads both Newt Gingrich (49-44) and Ron Paul (46-41) by 5 points, Michele Bachmann (50-41) by 9, and Rick Perry (50-40) by 10.  It continues to look like if GOP voters really want to defeat Obama they pretty much have to nominate Romney.

One thing that could confound Romney's prospects is if a strong third party candidate entered the race.  We find that pretty much all of the big names who have been mentioned for potential independent bids would take a lot more voters from Romney than Obama.

The strongest potential independent candidate we tested is Donald Trump who gets 19% in a three way contest with Obama at 45% and Romney at 31%. The folks who say they would support Trump go for Romney 71-10 in a straight up head to head with Obama.  Donald Trump's ego could potentially prove to be Obama's greatest asset for reelection in 2012.

The independent candidate who gets the next largest amount of support is Ron Paul at 17%. Obama would get 42% and Romney 37% in that match up. Folks who would vote for Paul third party go for Romney by a 55-17 margin over Obama in their head to head, making them at least a slightly more politically diverse group than the Trump voters.  Paul would achieve a near three way tie with independent voters, getting 27% to Obama's 32% and Romney's 31%.

The only other potential independent we tested who registers in double digits is Jon Huntsman at 11%. Obama gets 43% and Romney 37% in that three way contest.  Although Huntsman has built up a reputation as the Republican Democrats love and is getting a huge chunk of his support in New Hampshire from Obama voters, he would still draw disproportionately from Romney in a three way contest. His voters go 63-15 for Romney over Obama in a head to head.

It's clear there's a lot more desire for a third party candidate from conservative voters than Obama supporters. The strongest third party hopeful beyond the 3 in double digits is Gary Johnson who gets 9%. The three folks we tested who might presumably have more appeal to the left come in at 8% for Michael Bloomberg, 7% for Bernie Sanders, and 4% for Rocky Anderson.

The big picture on our national poll remains the same: Obama/Romney is a toss up, Obama has an advantage on the rest of the Republican field, and a third party candidate could pave the way for Obama's reelection.

Full results here

Comments

[Alan Snipes]

I find this poll surprising in light of other polls showing Obama ahead nationally and at odds with some of your own state polling such as Virginia where you have him comfortably ahead. Anyway, we'll see what your next poll shows as well as others that may come out. In general, Obama has been on the rise these last few weeks but your poll indicates otherwise.

[Obama 2012]

19% for Trump? That's mind-boggling. I think what that really shows is how ripe the field would be for a right wing 3rd party challenger if Romney is the nominee.

It's also hard for me to believe that Obama is only up on Gingrich by 5% points... I think that goes to show that a lot of people are simply not paying attention yet.

[Alan Robinson]

I think you are going to have to comment about the differences in your sample and the sample in the CNN poll that differ by more than the margin of error. You are showing Romney up 2 and they have Romney up 7 Please explain the difference to those of us interested in the technical details.

[atdleft]

No, I just think this may be an outlier. As much as I respect PPP, I don't think they're perfect. Frankly, NO polling outfit is.

Still, I find it amusing that the two polling outfits most accused of "favoring Democrats" (this and NBC/WSJ) are the only ones now showing Romney gaining ground against Obama. Meanwhile, all the legitimate polling outfits that had regularly shown the worst numbers for Obama (such as CNN/OR, Reuters, and ABC/WaPo) now show him ticking upward in approval and gaining ground against Romney. Try to explain that!

[mikeel]

Traditional polls: Obama approval up, tied or better against Romney

IVR polls: Obama approval flat (incl. Gallup), Obama tied or trailing Romney

I think it's partly race, partly conservative bias of IVR polls, and partly a lingering enthusiam gap.

[LynnTTT]

I just looked at polling report dot com and every poll except one ( maybe this one) shows Obama beating every GOP candidate. And as the saying goes "there's many a slip twixt cup and lip". You could get married today and have a smiling baby before the election

[Sam]

I think we just found the third party candidate. Politico just posted an article about Gary Johnson to drop out of GOP primary and run as Libertarian. This race keeps getting more and more interesting.

[jonathan]

Why wasn't there a Jon Huntsman versus Barack Obama question? He isn't running as an Independent, he is running as a Republican. Get your act together PPP.

[Tom Jensen]

Only the top 5 candidates in our national GOP polling get tested head to head against Obama. Huntsman doesn't meet the criteria.

[Michael Carmichael]

This poll revealing Obama's weakness to Romney at this early stage is not at all surprising. The Republicans are getting all of the attention and will continue to do so right up through their own party convention in Tampa next August. Another telling factor is this: Obama has been hit by tons of effective independent expenditure attacks, and he has been defended by a relatively miniscule independent campaign. The messaging arising from the Obama campaign and/or the DNC is predicated on either: incumbency or the Democratic brand. Neither factor is at all popular in this climate and the weather is unlikely to change substantially in this cycle - without massive counter attacks from independent Democrat and progressive organizations. Progressives from all walks of life need to fund a substantial independent expenditure campaign that can have the supreme tactical advantage of at least one degree of separation from the candidate and the party. That single degree makes a huge difference. Just look at the advantage the Republicans have in the massively disproportionate number and size of think tanks, 527s and 501 (c)(4)s. Democrats must even that imbalance in this cycle or watch Obama's numbers suffer throughout most of next year - jeopardizing the outcome of the presidential election as well as federal, state and local campaigns. Even in the day of Citizens United, Democrats and their backers must pony up the resources for the embattled Party and President to get on equal footing with Romney and the Republicans. To do anything less, would risk everything: the universe, the future, the planet.

[MootsaGootsa]

Gary Johnson will continue to rise in the polls when he makes the change to the Libertarian Party. Sometimes the best man wins. Gary is exactly what this country needs right now. With Cain out Gary is now the peoples President and has the ability to break the establishment. This won't be a three man race it will be a four man race when the American Elect picks their candidate. We will have four men on the ballot in all 50 states. http://mootsagootsa.com

[Todd Dugdale]

I find it interesting that Bachmann, Paul, Gingrich, Perry and Romney *all* have lower "approve" figures than Obama with the 65+ demographic.

In the match-ups, Obama beats or ties all the Republicans listed (except Romney, and only by 5) with the 65+ demographic. Could we be seeing diminishing returns from the GOP's Culture War rhetoric?

On top of that, only Romney and Gingrich pull a majority of white voters in match-ups with Obama, though both surpass McCain's 51% white vote.

And, despite Paul's alleged appeal to young voters, Obama beats him by 14 points in the 18-29 group.

It should be pointed out that PPP's 12/18 poll (DKos) had a larger sample (1000 compared to 700) and a D/R/I of 37/37/26. That poll showed Obama tied at 46% with a generic Republican. It's doubtful that Romney is really polling better than a generic candidate, but this poll shows a margin within the MOE anyway.

[Enrico]

Romney steals pension funds, Gingrich is historically unethical and they poll so close to Obama??? Where are these pollsters collected from?

Can someone please turn on America's light so we can stop running face first into brick walls?

Here's a torch to looked around: Anderson