Polls

Romney leads Obama almost as much as McCain in AZ

| Dustin Ingalls

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PresidentGraphRaleigh, N.C. –
President Obama’s campaign is hoping to put Arizona in play without home-state Sen. John McCain on the ballot.  As it is, the changing democraphics in the state led Obama to lose to McCain by only eight-and-a-half points there in 2008.  But just as about everywhere else, voters have soured on Obama over the course of this year.  When PPP last polled the Grand Canyon State in May, Obama had a 46-50 approval spread there.  That has now slipped nine points to 41-54, putting his standing here in league with where PPP has measured him in recent months in deep-red Texas and South Carolina.  If the election were held now, he would probably lose not just to Mitt Romney but also to two other Republicans, including new frontrunner Newt Gingrich.

Also in May, Obama trailed Romney by only four points, but now he lags by seven (49-42).  Obama led Gingrich by 7 six months ago, but Gingrich’s recent resurgence has put him in a 45-45 tie with the president.  Ron Paul actually leads by one point (44-43).  If by some miracle Herman Cain or Rick Perry were able to revitalize themselves and win the nomination, Obama would have a shot, leading them by four (46-42) and seven (47-40), respectively.  Paul, Cain, and Perry were not tested previously.

Twice as many Democrats disapprove of the president’s job performance as in May (22% versus 11%), and independents have shifted 26 points from 49-45 in his favor to 35-57 against.  So while he was losing only 7% of his own party’s vote to Romney and 9% to Gingrich half a year ago, he now cedes 12% and 16% of them.  And while he led Gingrich by 30 points and Romney by 17 with independents then, Gingrich now leads by one and Romney by 11.

“It’s going to be hard for Barack Obama to move Arizona into the Democratic column if the Republicans put up Mitt Romney,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But if they put up one of their lesser candidates it could end up being close.”

PPP surveyed 500 Arizona voters from November 17th to 20th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.4%.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 67%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%

Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%

Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%

Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 25%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%

Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 38%
Republican……………………………………………… 41%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%

Q15 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 16%
White …………………………………………………….. 76%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%

Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

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