Polls

Republican Hill leads Bullock by one for MT-Gov.

| Dustin Ingalls

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Raleigh, N.C. –
Of two potential Montana Democratic gubernatorial candidates and four Republicans, likely Democratic nominee Steve Bullock is the best-known and by far the best-liked, and his popularity has only grown in the five months since PPP last polled the race.  But because of the state’s Republican leanings, he remains down to his most likely Republican opponent, Rick Hill.

Bullock lags Hill by only one point (39-38), but that is hardly a change from June (39-37).  This is despite the fact that Bullock’s favorability spread has grown from an already solid 28-18 to 34-17, while Hill’s has remained equally in the red as before (22-27 versus 20-25).

Bullock is more familiar to his base than Hill to his, so more Republicans (19%) are undecided than Democrats (13%).  Thus, Hill could expand his lead unless Bullock can cut into the GOP vote or rack up a lead with independents.  He leads by one point with them now, and 35% are undecided.  Each candidate is pulling 6% of the opposite party.

Last Wednesday, PPP showed that Rick Hill was a solid favorite for the GOP nomination.  Bullock has an even more dominant lead on the Democratic side of the ledger, topping Larry Jent, 70-6.

If Hill were somehow denied the nomination, Bullock would lead the other three Republicans tested (Jeff Essmann, Neil Livingstone, and Ken Miller) by 11 or 12 points.  Jent would trail Essmann and Livingstone by four, Miller by eight, and Hill by 13.

“Steve Bullock is a strong candidate for the Democrats, but the Republicans have a generic edge,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

PPP surveyed 1,625 Montana voters, including 573 usual Democratic primary voters, from November 28th to 30th. The margin of error for the entire survey is +/-2.4%, and +/-4.1% for the Democratic primary portion.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Bullock?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeff Essmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Hill?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 51%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Larry Jent?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Neil Livingstone?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ken Miller?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%

Q7 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Steve Bullock and Republican Jeff
Essmann, who would you vote for?
Steve Bullock ………………………………………….. 42%
Jeff Essmann………………………………………….. 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 28%

Q8 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Steve Bullock and Republican Rick
Hill, who would you vote for?
Steve Bullock ………………………………………….. 38%
Rick Hill………………………………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 23%

Q9 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Steve Bullock and Republican Neil
Livingstone, who would you vote for?
Steve Bullock ………………………………………….. 41%
Neil Livingstone ………………………………………. 29%
Undecided………………………………………………. 30%

Q10 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Steve Bullock and Republican Ken
Miller, who would you vote for?
Steve Bullock ………………………………………….. 40%
Ken Miller……………………………………………….. 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 29%

Q11 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Larry Jent and Republican Jeff
Essmann, who would you vote for?
Larry Jent……………………………………………….. 26%
Jeff Essmann………………………………………….. 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 44%

Q12 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Larry Jent and Republican Rick Hill,
who would you vote for?
Larry Jent……………………………………………….. 26%
Rick Hill………………………………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 35%

Q13 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Larry Jent and Republican Neil
Livingstone, who would you vote for?
Larry Jent……………………………………………….. 26%
Neil Livingstone ………………………………………. 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 44%

Q14 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Larry Jent and Republican Ken
Miller, who would you vote for?
Larry Jent……………………………………………….. 25%
Ken Miller……………………………………………….. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 42%

Q15 If the Democratic candidates for Governor
were Steve Bullock and Larry Jent, who would
you vote for? (Asked only of 573 Democratic
primary voters)
Steve Bullock ………………………………………….. 70%
Larry Jent……………………………………………….. 6%
Undecided………………………………………………. 24%

Q16 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 47%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%

Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%

Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 30%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 35%

Q20 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 94%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%

Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 11%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

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