Polls

Florida shows perils of Gingrich for GOP

| Tom Jensen

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PresidentGraphRaleigh, N.C. –
If the Newt surge persists over the next few months the biggest winner is going to be Barack Obama.  We can see that pretty clearly in our newest Florida poll.

If Mitt Romney’s the Republican nominee, Obama’s in a lot of trouble in the Sunshine State. Obama leads Romney only 45-44, and given that the undecideds skew largely Republican he’d probably lose to Romney if the election was today. Obama being stuck in the mid-4os against Romney is par for the course in our Florida polling. In September Obama led 46-45, in June it was 47-43, and in March it was 46-44.  The dial has barely moved all year.

But if Newt Gingrich is the Republican nominee it’s a completely different story.  Obama leads him 50-44 in a head to head. To find the last time a GOP Presidential candidate lost Florida by more than that you have to go all the way back to Thomas Dewey in 1948.  Even Barry Goldwater did better in Florida than Gingrich is right now.

The conservative Republican base is certainly a lot more enthusiastic about Gingrich than they are about Romney right now.  But when it comes to appeal to Democrats and independents, Newt just simply doesn’t have it. Romney beats Obama by 7 points with independents.  Gingrich trails Obama by 1 with them. Romney holds Obama to 78% of the Democratic vote. Obama gets 83% of his own party against Gingrich.  And even among Republicans Gingrich loses 14% to Obama, while Romney sheds only 9%. Conservative Republicans are going to vote for Mitt in the end in the general whether they like him or not. It doesn’t looks like that’s necessarily the case for moderate Republicans when it comes to Newt.

“Republican voters are going to have to make a choice at some point,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If they want a nominee they’re excited about they can support Newt Gingrich. But if they want a nominee who can actually beat Obama they’re probably stuck with Romney.”

PPP surveyed 700 Florida voters from November 28th to December 1st. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.7%.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 67%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%

Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%

Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%

Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%

Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%

Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 36%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 14%

Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%

Q15 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 12%
White …………………………………………………….. 70%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%

Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 13%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%

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