Florida shows perils of Gingrich for GOP

If the Newt surge persists over the next few months the biggest winner is going to be Barack Obama.  We can see that pretty clearly in our newest Florida poll.

If Mitt Romney's the Republican nominee, Obama's in a lot of trouble in the Sunshine State. Obama leads Romney only 45-44, and given that the undecideds skew largely Republican he'd probably lose to Romney if the election was today. Obama being stuck in the mid-4os against Romney is par for the course in our Florida polling. In September Obama led 46-45, in June it was 47-43, and in March it was 46-44.  The dial has barely moved all year.

But if Newt Gingrich is the Republican nominee it's a completely different story.  Obama leads him 50-44 in a head to head. To find the last time a GOP Presidential candidate lost Florida by more than that you have to go all the way back to Thomas Dewey in 1948.  Even Barry Goldwater did better in Florida than Gingrich is right now.

The conservative Republican base is certainly a lot more enthusiastic about Gingrich than they are about Romney right now.  But when it comes to appeal to Democrats and independents, Newt just simply doesn't have it. Romney beats Obama by 7 points with independents.  Gingrich trails Obama by 1 with them. Romney holds Obama to 78% of the Democratic vote. Obama gets 83% of his own party against Gingrich.  And even among Republicans Gingrich loses 14% to Obama, while Romney sheds only 9%. Conservative Republicans are going to vote for Mitt in the end in the general whether they like him or not. It doesn't looks like that's necessarily the case for moderate Republicans when it comes to Newt.

This Florida poll is just one more piece of evidence: if the Republicans actually want to beat Obama they need to nominate Romney, love him or not.

Obama's Florida approval rating is 45% with 50% of voters disapproving of him.  Obama took the state by 3 points, so his current -5 approval spread represents an 8 point decline from his 2008 standing. That means he's actually holding up better in Florida than he is nationally.  He took the popular vote by 7 points in 2008 and now his national approval is a -8 spread at 44/52, for a national decline of 15 points.  The large share of African Americans and Hispanics in the electorate is helping Obama to do better in Florida than he is in other swing states like Pennsylvania and New Hampshire that have much more heavily white populations.

Obama easily handles the rest of the Republican field: he's up 6 points on Ron Paul at 46-40, 12 on Rick Perry at 50-38, and 14 on Herman Cain at 51-37.

Full results here

Comments

[The Globalizer]

FWIW, and I'm not a rabid Ron Paul booster, but I think you underestimate the competitiveness of a Paul/Obama H2H. Most of the undecideds are on the right - very likely to come home to roost, even with an oddball candidate like Paul. He also seems to do more damage among the political left, presumably due to his antiwar positions. (>20% approval among "very liberal"? Whaaaaaaat???)

I still think he has a seriously uphill battle in the GOP primary, but if he's the candidate, I think he starts with a lead.

[tbert]

Discussing "the competitiveness of a Paul/Obama H2H" is like considering what flavor of smurf to have on your pegasuswich: something completely unconnected to reality. Ron Paul, barring some sort of otherworldly intervention, is not going to be the Republican nominee. In all this thrashing about for someone, anyone, who is not Mitt Romney, Ron Paul has stayed at his 8%. This ain't his year. Until 2016, his fans can keep themselves warm with cozy thoughts of seasteading and invading New Hampshire.

[Steve]

I think people are seriously underestimating Newt Gingrich. We all had written him off in the primaries not long ago and then he started climbing up DUE TO HIS PERFORMANCE in the debates and a largely common sense aproach to his campaign rhetoric. He may be behind a bit now in the polls but he's doing much better than Rick Perry and I think that he'll make a formidable opponent to Barack Obama.

[Andrew]

The perils of Gingrich.....one year out. Overreaching a bit here, aren't you? Obama will be chewed up and spit out in a debate against Gingrich. I don't suspect you'll find the same numbers 8 months from now.

[markg8]

You only need to watch the new Ron Paul attack ad on Gingrich to see the flaws that will dog him as long as he's in the race. And yes he's recently surged, but only because the other not Romney candidates have been found wanting and discarded. Somebody is going to win this race by default. Nominees who win by default because they are the least unacceptable to the primary voters usually get beat in the general.

[Obama 2012]

I think it's hard to predict what would happen with Ron Paul as the nominee because he's so outside the norm of the Republican Party on some big issues. On some issues he would appeal to a lot of Obama supporters ... but I think overall he has too many ideas that would seem awfully scary to mainstream America when it comes down to it...

Anyway; there's no chance in hell the GOP establishment will let Ron Paul be the nominee. The only way he's making it to the general election is as a Libertarian or Independent candidate.

[RRA]

Steve - I actually might have to agree.

If anything, this PPP analysis asks the wrong question: With an economy of over 9% unemployment, why isn't Romney beating the incumbent like a drum? I'm sorry but after introducing yourself through all those primary stops last few months, and you haven't inched upon a troubled sitting President?

If Romney is more "electable" than Newt, the difference is mere inches. (Nevermind that Team Obama inevitably will spend a fortune to try to nail Romney on how his proposed medicare "reform" will gut it and scare the seniors. Bye Bye "advantage.") Funny enough, Newt's biggest strength is with old people.

[Buford]

Newt's "performance in the debates" amounted to little more than being a condescending jerk. Seriously. This guy is as likable as Pol Pot, and he's not half as smart as he thinks he is. Too many Republicans confusing being a jerk with being smart.

[Joe Turner]

If you think that Newt will"chew up Obama" in a head-to-head, please recall Nixon and Kennedy. Nixon was the prime debater who was expected to "chew up" Kennedy.

The debate topics have been argued ad nauseum. They won't change. When Newt is faced with the same old question of taxes for the rich, he'll fudge, change his position...he's as bad as Romney. Social security and medicare? All the so called glitz in the world isn't going to shield Newt from the fallout over those debate issues.

[Dustin Ingalls]

"Funny enough, Newt's biggest strength is with old people."

Old Republicans. He is now one of only two candidates who beats Obama in FL with seniors (51-44), but Romney does by a larger margin. And the Ryancare attack will hurt any GOP nominee unless Gingrich repudiates it as he seemed to back in the spring.

[Obama 2012]

I would say that Newt is only rising by default. He is the last anti-Romney standing.

It says something about how likable he is that the far right wing anti-Romney voters cycled through absolutely insane candidates like Donald Trump, Michele Bachmann, & Hermann Cain before settling on Newt.

Gingrich is a terrible candidate. If anything his general election #s are inflated right now. The general electorate will not be impressed by this cranky old jerk who is mostly remembered for shutting down the government and being Bill Clinton's nemesis.

Speaking of that: Bill Clinton remains very popular. So popular that even the Republicans are running ads showing Clinton in good light (that Obama/Clinton comparison ad) ... how is it going to play that Gingrich is mostly remembered as being the anti-Clinton of the '90s?

[Steve]

The thing about Newt Gingrich is that he has an extremely sharp acumen a reservoir of knowledge on almost every political topic that none of the other candidates come close to. I mean, just look at Rick Perry - he's constantly struggling just to keep his attention in a debate and just recites campaign slogans, etc. Newt's intelligence and insight, regardless of which side of the aisle you're on, really stands out. He won't be a joke in the campaign. Some people say he comes off like a jerk. I can't really agree with that. If you watch him in an interview, he draws you in with his sharpness and it's amazing that he's never at a loss for words no matter what the question thrown at him. I've not seen anything like this in any of the other candidates.

I think that we underestimate him at our own peril.

[fladem]

The crosstabs on this poll make absolutely no sense, and make me wonder if there isn't a typo.

According to the poll, only 13% are between 18 and 45. Are you kidding me?

Here are the demographics from CNN for Florida in 2008. 31% of the electorate was 39 or under, and another 20% were between 40 and 49.
Your poll's cross tabs make no sense. And arguably understate Obama given his strength among the young.

18-24 (8%) 60% 39% 1%
25-29 (7%) 62% 35% 3%
30-39 (16%) 53% 45% 2%
40-49 (20%) 45% 54% 1%
50-64 (27%) 54% 44% 2%
65 or Over (22%)

Link to the exit poll here:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=FLP00p1

[Mike]

Fladem -
If you look at the next line it says "30 to 45" underneath it. The 18 to 45 seems like a typo where 45 should be 30.

18 to 30*: 13%
30 to 45: 22%

with 35% going to the 18 to 45 group one must wonder whether the 40 to 50 group is actually being under sampled because with half of a group that made up 20% of the elctorate,it only goes up by 4% when you add the 40-45 year olds to the 18-40s, instead of the expected ~10%. This is one Obama did poorly in during 2008, loosing them by 9 points.

[Dustin Ingalls]

Yeah, that was a typo on my part. It's supposed to be 18 to 29. So that's right in line with 2008.