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December 09, 2011


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Boy, Tom, there's sure a lot of spin here.

1.) Are you considering Iowa and New Hampshire deep blue? I think it's absurd to say that because gay marriage is barely polling at a plurality in Colorado that the state is therefore likely to go for Obama. Arizona is 45/45, according to your polling, and I wouldn't consider that state "deep blue." Your last poll had Colorado at 45/45, too, so be careful about jumping the shark, here. National polling, I believe, has an actual majority of Americans supporting gay marriage, according to Gallup, which would put Colorado in the "red" column, as far as that goes. It's one poll, and that's it. I don't think most Coloradans support gay marriage, or civil unions, and I think the ballot would and has shown that.

2.) The same goes for marijuana. You had legalized marijuana at 53% in your last poll, now it's dropped to 49%. Either way, those are terrible numbers for a ballot initiative. I recall them being much better this time two years ago in California, but I may be wrong on that. Either way, a good numbers of Coloradans do support recreational use of pot, but the majority do not.

So to call Colorado "liberal," and use pretty weak numbers to show it, is so political, Tom. Sorry, but I'd rather see a more honest assessment with a pollster.


I also found that remark about gay marriage and marijuana a bit absurd as a way of predicting the Presidential election. Let's see the polling on the Presidential race and if Obama isn't polling at least 48% in this state he has a real problem. If Romney is the candidate, he has an added edge as this state has a decent Mormon population that could mean a few more votes for Romney. That factor and business conditions, I would say, mean a lot more than gay marriage or liberalization of marijuana.

Todd Dugdale

Chris wrote:
"Are you considering Iowa and New Hampshire deep blue?"

Looking back at the Iowa polling, PPP had this to say:
"41% of Iowans think gay marriage should be legal to 48% who believe it should be illegal".

That's not being "in favor" of gay marriage.

I also think that you missed the point of Tom's statement, "For the most part PPP's state by state gay marriage polling has only found deep blue states in favor of it."

I don't read that as Tom saying that Colorado is "in favor" of it. He is saying that only "deep blue states" - for the most part - have shown to be in favor of it, implying that Colorado is neither a deep blue state nor "in favor" of gay marriage. A plurality is not a majority, and it would require a majority to be "in favor".

"Either way, those are terrible numbers for a ballot initiative."

Who brought up the subject of a ballot initiative? You did.
It's kind of like taking issue with the results by saying it's ridiculous to assume that the poll shows that the Rockies will win the World Series. It's a straw man.

Dustin Ingalls

We released the presidential numbers earlier in the week.

FL, NC, VA, IN, NV, OH, and CO--those are the states that voted for Bush twice that then voted for Obama. I think anyone would tell you that CO is the least likely of those to flip red this time, given the demographic trends of the state, their social views, and the fact that Republicans did very well in the Tea Party wave of '09 and '10 in all those states but CO. Bennet won there narrowly and Hickenlooper (who's the 2nd or 3rd most popular gov. in the country) handily. In NV, Harry Reid is an exception, but his son got romped by Sandoval.

General Goose

In Tom's defence, he said "for the most part", and Iowa and New Hampshire are rather odd in that they already have same-sex marriage. Beyond that, lean-blue and swing states tend to be ambivalent or opposed to it. Colorado actively supports it.

And it's clear that Colorado is rapidly becoming more liberal and democratic. These numbers just support that.

Morgan Whitacre

Jay and Chris - you are both wrong. I think the assessment is fair. Thanks! The demographics in Colorado have changed dramatically in 10 years. Hispanics now make around 25% of the population - and thanks to the incredibly xenophobic republican party those voters are overwhelmingly democratic. Colorado is flipping to a blue state. That trend is now almost irreversible.

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