Polls

Maine Question 1 narrowly leads; voters want gay marriage

| Dustin Ingalls

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
Next Tuesday, Maine voters will get to vote whether to reject a state law that requires voters to register at least two business days prior to an election.  The vote could come down to the wire.  In PPP’s poll this past weekend, it was leading 48-44, meaning same-day registration would be restored.  Democrats and Republicans are about equally polarized for or against it, but independents favor it, 56-35.

GayMarriageGraphMaine’s gay marriage law failed 47-53 at the polls just two years ago, but now, as nearly everywhere, public opinion is shifting rapidly towards same-sex marriage rights.  51% of Maine voters want it to be legal and only 42% illegal, a 15-point reversal from 2009.  That is up even seven points from when PPP last polled the state in March; then 47% said gay couples should be allowed to legally marry, and 45% said they should not.  If a proposed referendum were on the ballot to re-legalize gay marriage while respecting the right of churches to not perform the ceremonies, it would pass even more handily, 48-35.

Voters were never thrilled with Gov. Paul LePage, but he eked out a win in November 2010 based on a Republican-heavy turnout and a three-way contest.  In PPP’s final poll of the race, 42% had a favorable opinion of LePage and 51% unfavorable.  Now, 43% approve and 48% disapprove of his performance in office, the same as when PPP last polled the state in March.  If last fall’s election were held now, LePage would still pull the same 38% of the vote he received when he narrowly edged past independent Eliot Cutler, who got 36%.  But Cutler would take the reins with 43% in a rematch, with Democrat Libby Mitchell sliding a bit from 19% to 16%.

Voters are split on whether Maine should still be one of two states to allocate its electoral votes by congressional district.  41% favor the status quo, while 40% want the statewide winner to take them all, and 20% are not sure.  Though it would undoubtedly help Democratic candidates and hurt Republicans, their voters are not overwhelmingly for or against the proposal, with Democrats at 44-34 and Republicans 35-48.

PPP surveyed 673 Maine voters from October 28th to 31st. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.8%.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Question 1 would reject a new state law
requiring new voters to register to vote at least
two business days prior to an election. If the
election was today, would you vote for or
against Question 1?
Would vote for it………………………………………. 48%
Would vote against it ……………………………….. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q2 Which system would you prefer for dispensing
Maine’s electoral votes: giving all of them to the
statewide winner or giving one to the winner of
each individual Congressional District?
Electoral votes should all go to the statewide
winner …………………………………………………….40%
One should be given to the winner of each
individual Congressional District …………………41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Paul LePage’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 43%
Disapprove………… 48%
Not sure ……………. 9%

Q4 If you could do last fall’s election for Governor
over again would you vote for independent
Eliot Cutler, Republican Paul LePage, or
Democrat Libby Mitchell?
Eliot Cutler ……………………………………………… 43%
Paul LePage …………………………………………… 38%
Libby Mitchell ………………………………………….. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%

Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Susan Collins’ job performance?
Approve …………….. .54%
Disapprove…………. .35%
Not sure …………….. .10%

Q6 Do you favor a law allowing marriage licenses
for same-sex couples that protects religious
freedom by ensuring no religion or clergy be
required to perform such a marriage in violation
of their religious beliefs?
Yes………………………………………………………… 48%
No …………………………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q7 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal……………………………………………………… 51%
Illegal …………………………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q8 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..46%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………36%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 1%

Q9 Do you support or oppose the goals of the
Occupy Wall Street movement?
Support ………………………………………………….. 47%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q10 Do you support or oppose the goals of the Tea
Party movement?
Support ………………………………………………….. 33%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q11 Do you have a higher opinion of the Occupy
Wall Street movement or the Tea Party
movement?
Occupy Wall Street ………………………………….. 52%
Tea Party ……………………………………………….. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 38%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 57%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%

Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 23%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 19%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 14%

Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 24%

Q16 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 94%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%

Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 23%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%

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