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November 06, 2011

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Mark B.

Sweet relief. Thank you PPP. Midwestern Dems for the win!

Gerald

I am starting to fall in love with PPP. Really, awesome polling work that no one else dared to do. If this poll nails the result, you will have made a reputation for yourselves in IA just as you did in WI and in NY-9.

Thank you for using the "most important" language on the question about the salience of marriage. I am not sure if that was the result of your considering my suggestion from a few days ago or whether you were going to phrase it this way anyway, but regardless, you nailed the question this time. For the first time, we have a good confirmation of the low salience of this issue in a special election.

I also think it is interesting that views on gay marriage in this district are approaching parity. SD 18 is a balanced district with a conservative bent, so a 42/46 split shows real movement from just a few years ago. If you had polled there in 2009, I would guess that opposition would have run at about 60%.

FYI, the other key metrics point to a Mathis win. Mathis is substantially ahead in fundraising - $690,000 to $281,000 (including in-kind contributions and independent expenditures). Based on the party identification of those requesting and returning absentee ballots, she is running ahead of Golding by more than 2-1, and likely will have about a lead of 3,000 votes going into election day. Ballot requests and ballot returns from independent voters have been much more likely to come from Dem-leaning precincts, so I wonder whether turnout may not erase Mathis's deficit among self-identified independents.

Again, great work. You should be proud of yourselves.

AndrewEden-Balfour

I really hope that same-sex marriage stays legal in Iowa, Vander Platts is really starting to get desperate on overturning the state supreme court decision.

Sam Dodsworth

Great questions, thanks so much for doing this poll!!

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