Polls

Iowans don’t want Culver back; Harkin leads early ’14 tests

| Dustin Ingalls

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
43% of Iowans approve of Terry Branstad’s job performance, and 43% disapprove.  PPP has polled on 22 governors that are more popular and 13 that are less popular this year, so Branstad is below average in how his constituents see him.  But those constituents have little desire to see his predecessor back in office either.  In a hypothetical do-over, Iowans would re-up Branstad by a similar margin as last fall.  51% prefer Branstad, and 40% Democrat Chet Culver.  Branstad won, 53-43.

The state’s voters do not see their longtime Sen. Tom Harkin much better.  44% approve and 41% disapprove of his work in D.C.  But in an early look at his potential 2014 re-election bid, two possible GOP foes, Rep’s Tom Latham and Steve King, would lose if the election were today.  Harkin would beat Latham, 45-42, and King, 49-42.  Both congressmen do identically well with their own party’s voters, but Harkin still takes 12% of them.  The difference is with Democrats and independents.  Harkin does ten points better with his party against King than Latham, and Latham does five points better than King with independents, though Harkin still beats both with them.

King has made a bigger name for himself in a shorter time.  But it is not a particularly good name.  Two-thirds have an opinion on King statewide, versus only 52% of Latham, despite the latter having served for four more terms.  But while slightly more (30%) see King favorably than Latham (28%), one and a half times as many see him negatively (36%) as his senior colleague (24%).

Latham and King have identical +15 favorability ratings in their current districts, but Latham could survive redistricting better.  His +18 in the new 3rd district, where he moved to challenge Leonard Boswell, bests King’s +4 in the new 4th.  Boswell is at -6 under both the current and new lines.  King’s opponent, Christie Vilsack, has a -4 in the new 4th.  Bruce Braley is better off, with a +2 in his current district and a +9 in the new 1st.  Dave Loebsack suffers a little though, with a +9 versus a +16 in the current makeup.

PPP surveyed 749 Iowa voters from October 7th to 10th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Terry Branstad’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q2 If you could do last fall’s election for Governor
over again, would you vote for Democrat Chet
Culver or Republican Terry Branstad?
Terry Branstad ………………………………………… 51%
Chet Culver…………………………………………….. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Charles Grassley’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Tom
Harkin’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bruce Braley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Leonard Boswell?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dave Loebsack?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Christie Vilsack?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Latham?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve King?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%

Q11 If the candidates for US Senate next time were
Republican Tom Latham and Democrat Tom
Harkin, who would you vote for?
Tom Latham……………………………………………. 42%
Tom Harkin……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q12 If the candidates for US Senate next time were
Republican Steve King and Democrat Tom
Harkin, who would you vote for?
Steve King ……………………………………………… 42%
Tom Harkin……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q13 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 41%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 11%

Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%

Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%

Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 26%

Q17 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%

Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

Q19 Old Congressional District
1st…………………………………………………………. 20%
2nd………………………………………………………… 23%
3rd ………………………………………………………… 18%
4th…………………………………………………………. 20%
5th…………………………………………………………. 18%

Q20 New Congressional District
1st…………………………………………………………. 25%
2nd………………………………………………………… 28%
3rd ………………………………………………………… 20%
4th…………………………………………………………. 26%

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