Polls

Cain leads Romney by eight nationally, Perry in 4th

| Dustin Ingalls

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
After jumping in front of the leadoff caucus race in PPP’s Tuesday release from Iowa, Herman Cain holds an identical 30-22 lead over Mitt Romney in the national standings.  Newt Gingrich lags with 15% to Rick Perry’s 14%, Michele Bachmann’s and Ron Paul’s 5%, Jon Huntsman’s 2%, Rick Santorum’s 1%, and Gary Johnson’s less than 1%.  Perry is down a shocking 17 points in the last month; he led with 31% in PPP’s September poll.  In his stead, Cain has jumped 22 points from sixth place.  Gingrich is up a nominal five points, and Romney four, while Paul is down six, and Bachmann four.

PrimaryGraph

Where Perry can take heart is that significantly more of his supporters (48%) say they are firmly committed to him than the rest of the top four’s backers do.  Overall, only a third of voters say they are immobile, while two-thirds could possibly switch to another candidate between now and when voting begins.  That is a perfect example of how chaotic this race has become.

For the moment, at least, Cain has usurped Perry as the hero of the far right.  In September, Perry led among the third who say they are very conservative with 39%, ahead of four other candidates in the low teens.  Perry has now slipped 19 points to 20% with these voters, with Cain up 23 points from 10% to 33%.  Romney is also up seven with them.

If the race beyond the early states came down to two candidates, Romney would have a modest 48-38 lead over Perry, and Cain a 48-36 one over Romney, but Cain would crush Perry, 55-27.

“Cain’s the flavor of the week but with 70% of Republican voters either undecided or willing to change their minds this race is as wide open as it’s ever been,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

PPP surveyed 484 usual Republican primary voters nationally from October 7th to 10th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 66%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 67%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Huntsman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Fred Karger?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 2%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%

Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Buddy Roemer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 77%

Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%

Q13 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron
Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 5%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 30%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 15%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 0%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 14%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 22%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 1%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 6%

Q14 (Asked only of those who made a choce in
Q13:) Would you say you are strongly
committed to that candidate, or might you end
up supporting someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 33%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 67%

Q15 (Asked only of those who made a choice in
Q13:) Who would be your second choice for
President?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 10%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 24%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 15%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 0%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 10%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 12%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 3%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 18%

Q16 Do you think that Mitt Romney is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 31%
Too conservative……………………………………… 5%
About right ……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q17 Do you think that Rick Perry is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 17%
Too conservative……………………………………… 14%
About right ……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q18 Do you think that Herman Cain is too liberal,
too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 6%
Too conservative……………………………………… 8%
About right ……………………………………………… 71%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q19 If the Republican race for President came
down to Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 48%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q20 If the Republican race for President came
down to Mitt Romney and Hermain Cain, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 36%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q21 If the Republican race for President came
down to Herman Cain and Rick Perry, who
would you vote for?
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 55%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q22 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 32%
No …………………………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q23 Do you think Barack Obama was born in the
United States?
Yes………………………………………………………… 39%
No …………………………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%

Q24 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 45%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 32%

Q25 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%

Q26 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%

Related Polls