Polls

Obama leads Romney by 4, Perry by 11 nationally

| Dustin Ingalls

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PresidentGraph Raleigh, N.C. –
President Obama’s jobs speech last Thursday night might have given him a boost in his bid for re-election.  After tying his perpetually strongest potential challenger Mitt Romney last month, Obama again leads him, but still by a smaller margin than he beat John McCain in the national popular vote three years ago.  Everyone else far underperforms McCain, who lost to the president in a near landslide.

Obama tops Romney, 49-45, up from a 45-all tie in PPP’s August national poll.  He leads Rick Perry, 52-41 (49-43 in August); Newt Gingrich, 53-41; and Michele Bachmann, 53-39 (50-42).  Were voters given the choice to reconsider the 2008 election, they would still elect Obama, but by only five points (51-46), when he actually won by seven, indicating some voters have changed their minds, but that not just any GOP nominee will do.

The president’s more solid standing in the Perry and Romney horseraces comes from consolidating his party support.  He was losing 13% of Democrats to each candidate in August, but only 11% to Romney and 9% to Perry now.  Obama has meanwhile upped his own crossover support, from 5% to 9% of Republicans versus Romney and 10% to 11% against Perry.  The president leads Perry by ten points with independents, but Romney tops Obama by two with them.

Americans are at odds with the Republican candidates on some of their controversial statements.  54% believe in global warming, and 51% in evolution.  Only 37% do not believe in each.  Only 10% would support eliminating Social Security, while 82% would not.  Only 20% agree with Perry that the program is a “Ponzi scheme,” and 70% do not.  Even Republicans disagree on that, 39-49.

“In just three weeks Barack Obama has nearly doubled his lead over Rick Perry,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “That would seem to be an indication that Perry’s comments about Social Security are giving him trouble with swing voters.”

PPP surveyed 665 American voters from September 8th to 11th. The margin of error for the entire survey is +/-3.8%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John McCain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q6 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%

Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%

Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%

Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%

Q10 If you could redo the 2008 election for
President, would you vote for Democrat Barack
Obama or Republican John McCain?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q11 Do you believe in global warming or not?
Believe in global warming …………………………. 54%
Do not ……………………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q12 Do you believe in evolution or not?
Believe in evolution………………………………….. 51%
Do not ……………………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q13 Would you support eliminating Social Security
or not?
Would support eliminating Social Security …… 10%
Would not……………………………………………….. 82%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q14 Do you agree or disagree with the following
statement? “Social Security is a Ponzi
Scheme.”
Agree …………………………………………………….. 20%
Disagree ………………………………………………… 70%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q15 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 42%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%

Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%

Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%

Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%

Q19 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 9%
White …………………………………………………….. 76%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%

Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%

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