Obama leads Romney and Paul by only a point in Florida

Raleigh, N.C. – In what has been perpetually one of the closest and most important states in the last few presidential elections, President Obama now leads two of his potential opponents by only a single point.  The leader in the Florida primary, per yesterday’s release, Mitt Romney trails only 46-45, up from 47-43 in June.  The surprise is the other candidate breathing down his neck: Ron Paul, who lags only 45-44.

Obama’s approval rating in Florida has declined a little since PPP last polled the state three months ago.  Then, voters about broke even on him, with 48% approving and 49% disapproving.  That is now a 46-51 spread.  Michele Bachmann’s favorability has shifted 29 points in the wrong direction since the previous poll.  In June, 36% saw her favorably and 37% unfavorably.  That is now 26-56, making her narrowly the least popular of the Republicans, followed closely by Newt Gingrich (28-57) and Rick Perry (29-58).  Paul stands at 31-51, with Romney by far the best-liked of the GOP bunch, at 40-46, down slightly from 41-45 in June.  Perry, Gingrich, and Paul were not tested then.

Despite Bachmann’s personal slide being much greater than the president’s, she has only gained on him.  Obama led her, 49-40, when she was first bursting onto the scene, but she now trails only 49-44—actually closer than Perry’s and Gingrich’s respective 50-43 and 50-42 deficits.

By a 42-49 margin, voters disapprove of the president’s handling of Israel, but Jewish voters approve, 61-31.  Only a quarter of voters think Social Security is a Ponzi scheme, and 63% disagree.

 “Florida makes it pretty clear that out of the two Republican front runners there’s one who can beat Barack Obama and one who can’t,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “There’s no way the GOP wins next year without Florida, and it doesn’t look like Rick Perry can do that.”

PPP surveyed 476 Florida voters from September 22^nd to 25^th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 46%
Disapprove...................................................... 51%
Not sure .......................................................... 3%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s leadership on Israel?
Approve .......................................................... 42%
Disapprove...................................................... 49%
Not sure .......................................................... 9%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable........................................................ 26%
Unfavorable .................................................... 56%
Not sure .......................................................... 18%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable........................................................ 28%
Unfavorable .................................................... 57%
Not sure .......................................................... 15%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable........................................................ 31%
Unfavorable .................................................... 51%
Not sure .......................................................... 18%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable........................................................ 29%
Unfavorable .................................................... 58%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable........................................................ 40%
Unfavorable .................................................... 46%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 49%
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 44%
Undecided....................................................... 7%

Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 50%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 42%
Undecided....................................................... 8%

Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 45%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 44%
Undecided....................................................... 11%

Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 50%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 43%
Undecided....................................................... 8%

Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 46%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 45%
Undecided....................................................... 9%

Q13 Do you agree or disagree with the following
statement: “Social Security is a Ponzi
Scheme.”
Agree .............................................................. 25%
Disagree ......................................................... 63%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

Q14 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain................................................... 45%
Barack Obama................................................ 48%
Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 7%

Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 10%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 14%
Moderate......................................................... 32%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 27%
Very conservative ........................................... 16%

Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 52%
Man................................................................. 48%

Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 40%
Republican...................................................... 37%
Independent/Other.......................................... 23%

Q18 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic.......................................................... 16%
White .............................................................. 67%
African-American ............................................ 12%
Other............................................................... 6%

Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 16%
30 to 45........................................................... 22%
46 to 65........................................................... 36%
Older than 65.................................................. 26%

Q20 Are you Jewish, Catholic, Protestant, another
religion, or no religion at all?
Jewish............................................................. 5%
Catholic........................................................... 27%
Protestant ....................................................... 51%
Another religion............................................... 5%
No religion at all .............................................. 10%
Don't care to say............................................. 1%

Comments

[pbrower2a]

It looks like a definite gain for President Obama. Rasmussen shows 45% approval, and Florida is usually very close to national approval.

Incumbent Senators and Governors usually gain about 6% in vote share from the beginning of the campaign to the campaign itself. It's easy to see why; governing and legislating imply that one must make compromises of positions and make decisions that don't please everyone. So it is with the President. One can't please Business and Labor alike or energy-extractors and environmentalists at the same time. Good for both? Such usually isn't decided by politics. And then there is the budgetary process in which everyone's goose gets cooked. But once campaign season begins, an incumbent ordinarily gets to relate his achievements, he gets plenty of free coverage, and gets to make new promises. That is against someone who has yet to prove the ability to win the office in question (the incumbent usually has proved that) and who might not have as effective a campaign apparatus.

At certain points it might be about 6% for the President with the implication that an incumbent will get somewhere between 38% and 62% of the vote. Nobody goes over 62%, and nobody (unless there is a three-way split) goes under 38% of the vote. For a President with 40-47% approval in a state, one could reasonably expect a gain of about 6% because a campaign for the electoral votes of a State is much like a campaign for Governor or Senator. Under 40% approval at the time? The incumbent is likely to abandon the effort. Over about 50% in a state? The incumbent has better uses of his campaign appearances and his campaign might cut off the TV ads when the efforts simply offer to run up the score.

The 6% gain is not enough to save a turkey or rescue a candidate wallowing in scandal or diplomatic/military/economic calamities.

Sure it is within the margin of error, but it is the right way. The Republican nominee absolurely needs Florida.