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June 08, 2011

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Sam

Gotta love my home state that Im moving back to in the very near future for a while. Its the first state to ban discrimination against sexual orientation but Im willing to bet it will be one of the last states to repeal its marriage amendment.Thanks for doing the gay marriage question PPP.

Dustin Ingalls

This of course likely means that Wisconsinites probably oppose gay marriage by a substantial majority because there are so many undecideds.That doesnt follow at all.it had been proven that there is a huge Bradley Effect when it pertains to polling questions such as this one.Actually, our polling on the issue in Maine before they banned it was dead on. Automated polling eliminates the social desirability bias much more than live interviewer polls do, meaning people are more likely to admit bias against various minorities, which is why our polls on the issue tend to show significantly fewer people in support of gay marriage than outfits like Gallup and the various media polls which have been finding majorities in favor. Also, Wisconsins vote was 5 years ago, and opinion is moving pretty rapidly toward equality.Although I suppose the survey was lengthy already.That it was. I also dont think that many people outside WI care about those other issues.

Anonymous

Yes, Im about to complain about something I was able to view for free, but really, this was all the miscellany you could fit in? What about the Voter ID bill? The concealed carry proposals? The Supreme Court race?Although I suppose the survey was lengthy already.

Anonymous

You are delusional if you really think that only 46% of Wisconsinites oppose gay marriage when nearly 60% voted to ban both gay marriage and civil unions just 4 years ago. Either you need to find a better way to poll this question, or not ask it at all, because it had been proven that there is a huge Bradley Effect when it pertains to polling questions such as this one. I live in Massachusetts and doubt that even a majority there support it.

Steve

Interesting. This of course likely means that Wisconsinites probably oppose gay marriage by a substantial majority because there are so many undecideds.

Anonymous

I also dont think that many people outside WI care about those other issues.I suppose thats fair enough. But at the same time, when you have the DNC chairwoman saying Voter ID laws are similar to Jim Crow laws, I think it would have been interesting to see what the citizens of a state that is actually seeing such a bill enacted think.(A SurveyUSA poll of Minnesota found residents there overwhelmingly in favor).

Anonymous

The so-called Bradley effect in gay marriage polling has been in steady decline. And PPP has always had the smallest variance of the pollsters polling on this issue.Although I am sure that most of those undecideds would break against gay marriage, it is highly unlikely that all of them would. If we assume that WI has experienced the same trends as every other state and at no greater or lesser pace, and working off of the 2006 election* results then the real breakdown should be something in the neighborhood of 47-48 percent support SSM and 53-54 percent oppose SSM.*One last point: the 2006 election results in WI are unusual to say the least. A 59% vote to ban SSM puts WI opposition just a few points below that of Idaho, a super-red state, which passed an amendment in 2006 w/ 63% of the vote. In 2006, AZ defeated an anti-gay marriage amendment 51-49, because it, like WIs amendment, attempted to ban civil unions as well. It seems extremely odd that WI would run 9 percentage points more conservative than AZ. Whether this is because of WIs historically low off-year turnout or because of an inept campaign by the SSM supporters, I do not know.

Anonymous

Very interesting results! @Anonymous #1: Its not surprising that voters views have changed so rapidly when you look at the broader trends that have been supported by countless other polls and analyses. And the poll released yesterday should give you no reason to doubt that Massachusetts strongly supports same-sex marriage...Thanks so so much for continuing to poll same-sex marriage in new states!!! Its greatly appreciated and its fascinating to see the all of these state-by-state numbers compared to national trends, since there is obviously a ton of variability between states and no one else does statewide polling!

Dustin Ingalls

I think it would have been interesting to see what the citizens of a state that is actually seeing such a bill enacted think.Weve polled on voter ID here in NC, where theyre also pushing a bill on it.

Scott

I think it is outrageous that civil rights like marriage can be decided by popular vote. Just because a mob mentality supports discriminating against a minority doesnt make it right.

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