Raleigh, N.C. – The Republican presidential field has changed rapidly since PPP last polled Iowa Republicans in mid-April. Then, Mike Huckabee led with 27% to Romney’s 16%, Donald Trump’s 14%, Newt Gingrich’s 9%, Sarah Palin’s 8%, Michele Bachmann’s and Ron Paul’s 6%, and Tim Pawlenty’s 5%. Now, with Huckabee and Trump out, and Herman Cain and Jon Huntsman in, the race is much tighter. Romney tops with 21% over Palin’s and Cain’s 15%, Gingrich’s 12%, Bachmann’s 11%, Pawlenty’s 10%, Paul’s 8%, and Huntsman with almost no support. In the event Palin does not make a bid, Romney would rise to 26%, with Cain at 16%, Gingrich at 15%, Bachmann at 14%, Paul at 11%, Pawlenty still at 10%, and Huntsman way back at 1%.
This is the third poll in the last week in which Cain has debuted near the top of the standings. Palin also continues to take advantage of Huckabee’s absence, and Gingrich’s slight increase in support probably has more to do with that than anything positive he has done as a candidate, as his favorability has slid 23 points from 47-26 to 39-41 in just over a month, making him the only major candidate actually disliked. Pawlenty continues to improve, doubling his support since the last poll.
There has been much discussion about how Romney might do if the GOP race eventually came down to him and a single more conservative alternative. Romney would tie Pawlenty at 41%, while leading Cain, Palin, or Bachmann by seven to 14 points. The presence of those three Tea Party favorites is keeping Pawlenty back in a more crowded race, but it is actually Pawlenty’s ability to cut into Romney’s leads with moderates and the somewhat conservative that make him the most competitive anti-Romney at this point. Bachmann fares best with the very conservative.
“Romney has the nominal lead but the fact that there are 6 people polling at double digits shows how wide open the race is in Iowa,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 481 usual Iowa Republican primary voters from May 27th to 30th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 59%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 53%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rudy Giuliani?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Donald Trump?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Huntsman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 46%
Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Buddy Roemer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 63%
Q16 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Fred Karger?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 2%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 81%
Q17 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%
Q18 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%
Q19 Given the choices of Michele Bachmann,
Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman,
Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt
Romney, who would you most like to see as
the Republican candidate for President next
year?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 11%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 15%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 12%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 0%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 15%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 10%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 21%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 8%
Q20 If Sarah Palin didn’t run, and the choices were
just Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney, who would you
most like to see as the nominee?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 14%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 16%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 15%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 11%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 10%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 26%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 8%
Q21 If the Republican nomination contest came
down to Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 48%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q22 If the Republican nomination contest came
down to Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 41%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q23 If the Republican nomination contest came
down to Mitt Romney and Herman Cain, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 48%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q24 If the Republican nomination contest came
down to Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann,
who would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q25 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 31%
No …………………………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q26 Do you think Barack Obama was born in the
United States?
Yes………………………………………………………… 42%
No …………………………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q27 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 6%
Moderate………………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 37%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 41%
Q28 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%
Q29 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
