Raleigh, N.C. – – PPP’s newest
Wisconsin poll finds a big debate bump for Mitt Romney in the state. Two weeks
ago he trailed Barack Obama by 7 points there, 52-45. Now he’s pulled to within
two points, with Obama’s lead now just 49-47.
There’s not much doubt it was Romney’s strong debate performance on
Wednesday night that’s given him this boost. Voters think he won the debate by
a 61/25 margin, including a 60/19 margin with independents. 95% of Republicans
think Romney won the debate, while only 50% of Democrats claim to think Obama
was the winner. Romney’s image has seen significant improvement over the last
couple weeks with 49% of voters now expressing a positive opinion of him to 48%
with a negative one. That’s up a net 8 points from a 44/51 spread on our last
poll.
The main shift compared to 2 weeks ago in Wisconsin is an increase in
Republican enthusiasm about Romney and the election in general. He’s gone from
leading Obama by 79 points with Republicans (89-10) to an 85 point advantage
(92-7). One thing that might be reassuring for Democrats is that Obama’s held
steady with independents in the state, continuing to hold a 9 point lead.
There’s also been a big uptick in Republican enthusiasm about the election.
Two weeks ago there was basically no enthusiasm gap with 65% of Democrats and
63% of GOP voters saying they were ‘very excited’ to vote this fall. Now the
Republicans are seeing an advantage on that question with their share of ‘very
excited’ voters climbing to 72% while the Democrats have declined to 63%.
Looking at the movement in Wisconsin along racial lines, it’s all come with
white voters. They’ve gone from favoring Obama by 5 to supporting Romney by 3.
“Mitt Romney’s received a significant bounce in Wisconsin after his big
victory in the debate on Wednesday,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public
Policy Polling. “The big question now is whether the renewed closeness of the
race will be permanent or just temporary.”
PPP surveyed 979 likely Wisconsin voters from
October 4th to 6th. The margin of error for the overall survey is
+/-3.1%. This poll was not paid for or
authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted
through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%
Q4 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of the economy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q5 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of foreign policy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q6 Who do you think won the debate between
Barack Obama and Mitt Romney this week?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 25%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q8 Are you very excited, somewhat excited, or not
at all excited about voting in the 2012
elections?
Very excited ……………………………………………. 61%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 26%
Not at all excited ……………………………………… 13%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Big Bird?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q10 Do you support or oppose federal funding for
PBS?
Support ………………………………………………….. 51%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 34%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45 years old, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If
you are older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
