Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s final poll on the Republican primary for Senate in Wisconsin continues to find a three way toss up: Eric Hovde’s at 27%, Tommy Thompson’s at 25%, Mark Neumann’s at 24%, and even Jeff Fitzgerald isn’t that far behind the rest of the pack at 15%.

The race has seen little movement in the last week. Fitzgerald’s gained two points, Hovde and Neumann have each dropped by a point, and Thompson hasn’t moved at all.

Some of the underlying numbers bode well for Hovde’s prospects. Among voters who say they’re ‘very excited’ about casting their ballots he leads with 37% to 20% for Fitzgerald, 19% for Neumann, and 17% for Thompson. In the Missouri and Texas GOP contests over the last two weeks Todd Akin and Ted Cruz had the most enthusiastic supporters and both ended up outperforming their final poll numbers. Hovde appears to be the candidate best positioned to do that here.

Hovde seems to have staked out the position as the candidate of the Tea Party in this race. He’s at 36% with those voters to 21% each for Neumann and Thompson, and 17% for Fitzgerald. He’s also leading with voters who categorize themselves as ‘very conservative’ with 30% to 22% for Neumann and 19% for Thompson. There’s plenty of reason to think Neumann could end up pulling this out. He’s ahead with evangelicals, getting 30% to 27% for Hovde and 22% for Thompson. He’s first with women at 28% to 24% for Thompson and 22% for Hovde. And he’s tied with Thompson for the lead among seniors at 27% with Hovde back at 23%. Seniors and evangelicals in particular are vital groups in a GOP primary electorate.

“The Wisconsin Republican Senate primary continues to look like a three way toss up,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The candidates are incredibly close to each other and there’s a plausible path to victory for any of them in the closing stretch of this campaign.”

PPP surveyed 557 likely Republican primary voters on August 8th and 9th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.2%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Democratic or
Republican primary for the US Senate next
week, or do you not plan to vote in a primary?
Democratic primary………………………………….. 0%
Republican primary………………………………….100%
Don’t plan to vote in a primary …………………… 0%

Q2 The Republican candidates for Senate are Jeff
Fitzgerald, Eric Hovde, Mark Neumann, and
Tommy Thompson. If the election was today,
who would you vote for?
Jeff Fitzgerald …………………………………………. 15%
Eric Hovde ……………………………………………… 27%
Mark Neumann ……………………………………….. 24%
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 25%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeff Fitzgerald?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Eric Hovde?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Neumann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tommy Thompson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q7 Would you say you are very excited, somewhat
excited, or not that excited about voting in the
primary election?
Very excited ……………………………………………. 38%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 35%
Not that excited……………………………………….. 27%

Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%

Q9 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 33%

Q10 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 47%
Are not …………………………………………………… 53%

Q11 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 31%
No …………………………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 30%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 41%
Didn’t Answer………………………………………….. 7%